Ethereum (ETH) slipped again on Thursday as 228,000 ETH options worth about $730 million expired, according to an update from Greeks.live.
The token’s drop marks its third straight monthly decline, reflecting a market that has turned sharply negative as volatility expectations flare.
A Market Under Pressure
Greeks.live’s data revealed that 228,000 Ethereum options contracts expired with a maximum pain point, the price that causes the most options losses, at $3,475.
This event coincided with the expiration of $3.95 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options, with the firm noting that both leading cryptocurrencies are falling in price. BTC dipped below the key psychological level of $100,000, and Ethereum extended its losing streak to push market sentiment “from neutral toward negative.”
The options trading platform also noted that market indicators are pointing toward a broad rise in implied volatility (IV), a measure of how much turbulence traders expect. While Bitcoin’s near-term IV sits around 45%, Ethereum’s figures are markedly higher, with major expiries going past 70% and short-term IV approaching 100%, indicating that traders may be bracing for bigger price swings in ETH.
In a follow-up post, Greeks.live stated that with Bitcoin’s break below $100,000, put options have gained the upper hand, leading them to characterize the current climate as a bear market.
Diverging Signals and Macro Uncertainty
Despite the negative price action, not all on-chain data is pessimistic. Earlier in the week, analyst CryptoOnchain reported that major Ethereum holders had withdrawn more than 413,000 ETH, worth over $1.4 billion, from the Binance exchange. It represented the largest single-day outflow since February, with such movements often interpreted as a sign of long-term confidence, as they usually reduce the immediate supply available for sale on trading platforms.
From a technical perspective, some observers see potential for a rebound, with a recent analysis showing that ETH had reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average against BTC, a level that has historically come before major rallies.
Other chart patterns also suggest possible bullish targets near $4,400 if the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap can maintain its footing above $3,000.
The overarching uncertainty, however, stems from the macroeconomic landscape. As Greeks.live explained, the recent 43-day U.S. government shutdown created a data vacuum, leaving markets to rely on projections.
Given that the likelihood of a rate cut is now uncertain and the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, the crypto market seems to be in a “wait-for-signal” phase. As one analyst, Doctor Profit, warned, the worst may not be over, predicting a further drop for Bitcoin to the $90,000-$94,000 range.