Ethereum Price Nears Key Support as Analysts Eye a Potential Rebound

After weeks of sideways action, ETH remains trapped in a consolidation range, sparking uncertainty among traders who are looking for signs of a trend reversal.

At the time of writing, Ethereum trades around $3,846, hovering just above the crucial $3,802 support area. Market observers note that this level has become a focal point for both short-term traders and long-term investors, with many waiting to see if the asset can hold firm before the next decisive move.

Testing a Crucial Technical Zone

Prominent crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his outlook on X, pointing out that Ethereum is currently testing its 20-week moving average — a technical region that has historically marked strong accumulation phases. He emphasized that ETH’s current setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for long-term portfolios, describing it as “a tremendous spot to be added to portfolios.”

According to van de Poppe, the confluence between the moving average and a higher timeframe support level may provide the foundation for Ethereum’s next rally. “Corrections don’t last forever,” he added, suggesting that the ongoing pullback could be nearing its conclusion.

If Ethereum manages to defend this zone, analysts believe the next resistance to watch will be near $4,150. A breakout above that threshold could signal renewed buying strength and a potential return toward the $4,300–$4,400 range.

On-Chain Data Shows Investor Strain

Beyond the charts, blockchain data is painting a mixed picture. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator — a metric used to gauge overall market profitability — has recently dipped into the capitulation zone. This range often appears when many holders are near breakeven or in slight losses, typically preceding short-term rebounds as selling pressure begins to ease.

Such periods of capitulation tend to reset market expectations. Short-term holders, known for reacting quickly to price swings, often become reluctant to sell at a loss. Historically, this behavior creates conditions for brief relief rallies as traders push prices upward in search of quick recoveries before taking profits again.

If this pattern holds, Ethereum could experience another short-term bounce similar to those observed earlier in the month, where the asset briefly regained strength before returning to consolidation.

Sentiment Hits Nine-Month Low

From a broader perspective, investor sentiment around Ethereum has turned notably bearish. Data from Santiment reveals that Ethereum’s weighted sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since February, reflecting increased caution and fatigue among market participants.

This decline in optimism mirrors the broader crypto landscape, where traders are becoming increasingly selective about new positions. Prolonged bearish sentiment can discourage fresh inflows, ultimately weighing on price stability. However, such negative readings have also been known to act as contrarian signals — often preceding market recoveries once pessimism peaks.

Rangebound Conditions Persist

For now, Ethereum appears rangebound between $3,802 and $4,154. Analysts suggest that until volatility returns or trading volume picks up, ETH may continue oscillating within this band. A decisive close above $4,150 would be needed to confirm the start of a stronger upward move, while a drop below $3,800 could open the door to deeper losses.

Despite current headwinds, van de Poppe and several other market strategists maintain that Ethereum remains fundamentally strong, supported by ongoing developments in staking, scaling solutions, and institutional interest. Many believe that the current correction phase is part of a broader accumulation process rather than the beginning of a prolonged downturn.

Outlook: Patience May Be Key

Ethereum’s long-term trajectory continues to depend on macroeconomic factors, investor sentiment, and broader market liquidity. As traders await stronger signals from the Federal Reserve and risk assets, ETH’s consolidation could serve as a necessary cooldown before its next significant move.

While short-term uncertainty prevails, technical confluence and historical data suggest that Ethereum may be approaching a point of stabilization — one that could set the stage for renewed upside once market confidence returns.

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