Ethereum price runs into $3,400 wall, breakout or pullback next?

Ethereum Price Key Technical Points

Ethereum has rallied into $3,400 high-time-frame resistance. This zone includes a bearish order block, value area high, and 0.618 Fibonacci confluence. Failure to reclaim $3,400 increases downside risk toward the value area low support.

Ethereum’s $3,400 resistance zone is structurally important because it marks a region where sellers have previously defended price aggressively. This is a level that often attracts distribution behavior, where larger participants offload into strength as retail and momentum traders attempt to chase continuation.

From a market profile perspective, the value area high typically represents the upper boundary of accepted value within a range. When price rallies into this region and fails to sustain acceptance, it frequently rotates back toward lower value, especially if the broader macrostructure remains range-bound.

At the same time, the bearish order block adds another layer of resistance. Order blocks often indicate zones where institutional supply previously entered the market, so the price may face heavy selling pressure as it revisits those regions. When these factors stack together, the burden of proof shifts to buyers.

0.618 Fibonacci Confluence and Distribution Risk

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement is one of the most widely respected levels in technical analysis, often acting as a pivotal decision point between continuation and reversal. Ethereum trading into the 0.618 confluence at $3,400 raises the probability that the market may experience a slowdown in momentum.

This is where distribution becomes a real risk. Distribution phases often occur when price reaches a major resistance zone, volume begins to spike, and buyers struggle to push the market higher. The result is often a rejection wick, followed by acceptance, as price rotates back into the prior range.

If Ethereum fails to reclaim $3,400 on a closing basis, the rally risks becoming a false breakout attempt, which would shift probability toward a pullback rather than continuation.

Macro Range Remains the Dominant Framework

Even though Ethereum’s recent move has been impulsive, the broader macro context still suggests the market is trading within a range. In range conditions, price often oscillates between resistance near the value area high and support near the value area low, with repeated rejections unless a decisive breakout occurs.

For Ethereum, a clean breakout above $3,400 would signal a shift in that macro framework. It would suggest acceptance above resistance and confirm that buyers are strong enough to hold higher prices.

However, without that acceptance, the more likely scenario is a rotational move lower, as the market returns to the lower boundary of the range to seek support and rebalance value.

What Would Confirm a Breakout?

For Ethereum to break through $3,400 and sustain upside momentum, two key factors must be present: volume and acceptance.

A breakout without volume is vulnerable. It often results in a quick move above resistance that fails to hold, pulling price back into the range. A true breakout, by contrast, tends to be impulsive, supported by expanding volume, and followed by multiple higher-time-frame closes above the level.

If Ethereum can reclaim $3,400 and hold above it with strong participation, the market would increase the probability of continuation toward higher resistance zones beyond the current range.

What to Expect in the Coming Price Action

Ethereum is now at a major decision zone. The $3,400 resistance region exhibits significant technical confluence, and the market is likely to react strongly to this area. A breakout scenario requires strong volume expansion and sustained acceptance above the resistance level.

Without that confirmation, the risk of rejection remains elevated, and a pullback toward the value area low becomes more likely.