According to a recent on-chain report shared by CryptoQuant, Ethereum’s price drop this week reflects the completion of a full market cycle, moving from accumulation and markup into a renewed distribution and early decline phase.
The analysis, titled “3K ETH: The Drop Explained,” outlines Ethereum’s behavior across four market stages, supported by volume data and long liquidation metrics from Binance.
Four Stages of the 2025 Ethereum Market
CryptoQuant’s analyst notes that Ethereum’s year-long trajectory has mirrored the textbook market cycle pattern:
Decline (Downtrend)
The first major stage saw ETH record a structural lower high and lower low, driven in part by escalating tariff tensions that triggered risk-off sentiment. The token fell below several critical anchored VWAP levels, including those set from the Trump election victory, 2021 ATH, and 2024’s first record high, before finally stabilizing at the VWAP anchored from Ethereum’s original Binance listing candle, a key support also observed during the 2022 bear market.
Accumulation Phase
After the heavy selloff, Ethereum consolidated between $2,000 and $3,000 for nearly 10 weeks, marking the re-entry of buyers but without decisive market control.
Markup (Uptrend)
Ethereum then launched a powerful breakout, reclaiming and closing above several AVWAPs, confirming an uptrend that pushed the asset to a new all-time high in August 2025. During this phase, buyers maintained full dominance.
Distribution and Breakdown
Over recent weeks, ETH has transitioned into a sideways distribution pattern, failing to sustain moves above its ATH VWAP. The report highlights that ETH compressed between resistance at that level and support anchored from the Middle East War low, holding for five weeks before finally breaking down with high volume earlier this week.
Largest Liquidation Since October
This breakdown triggered over $39 million in long liquidations on Binance, marking the platform’s largest long flush since October 10. The report concludes that Ethereum’s market is now in a buyer-neutral phase, where bulls have lost clear control but significant structural supports remain intact, including those anchored to key macro events like the Trump election victory and 2024 highs.