What if Ethereum was worth much more than the market thinks? According to a study conducted by CryptoQuant, 9 valuation models out of 12 estimate that ETH is currently largely undervalued. For Ki Young Ju, CEO of the platform, these analyses reveal a significant gap between the current price of Ether and its real theoretical value. This finding rekindles the debate on how cryptos should be valued.
In Brief
- •A new study conducted by CryptoQuant states that Ether (ETH) is largely undervalued by the current market.
- •Out of 12 economic models analyzed, 9 estimate that the real value of ETH significantly exceeds the current $3,000.
- •The average valuation from these models places ETH around $4,836, a positive gap of +58 %.
- •The Revenue Yield model, however, estimates that ETH is overvalued by more than 50 %.
A Majority of Models Converge: ETH Largely Undervalued
According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the majority of valuation models applied to Ethereum reach the same conclusion: ETH is undervalued at its current price.
"These models were built by trusted experts from academia and traditional finance," he states. Out of the 12 models analyzed, 9 estimate that the price of ETH should be well beyond the current $3,000. By cross-referencing this data, an average composite value of ETH is estimated at $4,836, 58 % higher than its market valuation.
Among the most notable models in this study, several stand out due to their analytical approach and results:
- •The App Capital Model: accounts for all on-chain assets on Ethereum (stablecoins, ERC-20 tokens, NFTs, RWA, etc.) with a valuation of $4,918 for the crypto.
- •The Metcalfe’s Law based model: values the network based on the square of active users with an estimated valuation of $9,484, or +211 % compared to the current price.
- •The Layer 2 TVL model: relies on the total value locked in Ethereum’s scalability solutions (Arbitrum, Optimism, etc.) with an estimated valuation of $4,633.
In total, 8 of the 12 models are considered sufficiently reliable, rated two out of three or higher according to ETHval’s criteria.
All these approaches reflect an optimistic view of ETH’s intrinsic value, fueled by the growth of its ecosystem, the increasing adoption of L2 solutions, and the expansion of use cases related to tokenized assets. Based on this data, the market is today clearly out of step with the economic reality projected by the Ethereum network.
A Disruptive Model: The Crypto Would Be Overvalued by More Than 50 %
Despite the apparent consensus among most models, some methodological approaches temper or even contradict this optimistic reading. The Revenue Yield model reveals that Ether would be significantly overvalued at its current levels.
This model, described as "the most reliable" within the study, relies on a simple but rigorous methodology: dividing the annual revenues generated by the Ethereum network by the yield obtained through staking. According to calculations, the crypto should trade around $1,296, far from current levels, indicating an overvaluation of 57 %.
This pessimistic view is based on a tangible fact: the drop in revenues of the Ethereum network. Transaction fees have hit historically low levels, reflecting a decline in on-chain activity, while other emerging blockchains are nibbling away at the network’s market share.
This revenue decline mechanically affects staking yield, the very basis of this valuation model. Unlike other more projected or theoretical approaches, the Revenue Yield model favors a fundamental and immediate reading, focused on the net cash flows generated by the Ethereum crypto network.
While Ethereum raises its gas limit to 60M, strengthening its technical capabilities, the debate about its valuation takes on a new dimension. Between bullish projections and methodological caution, the market will have to decide: is ETH truly undervalued or simply ahead of its economic reality?