Short-Term Bullish Structure and Key Resistance Test
Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded 17% from a strong support cluster at $2,626, forming a bullish short-term structure. The price is now testing the channel midline, with potential upside targets at $3,170–$3,356 if the breakout holds. Elliott Wave structure suggests continued upside before ETH completes its broader correction.
Daily Chart Analysis: ETH Testing Channel Midline Resistance
The daily chart shows Ethereum testing an important level, specifically the center line of its trend channel. Ethereum began its larger correction in August. Recently, the price reached the 50% retracement at $2,626 USD, which aligned with the 100% extension at $2,628. This support cluster triggered a robust 17% rally, propelling ETH from those depths to current levels hovering around $3,013 as of Thursday’s close. At this juncture, ETH faces its first major hurdle: the center line of the trend channel, roughly between $3,000 and $3,100. A decisive break above this level could validate the bullish interpretation, opening the door to higher targets.
Elliott Wave Structure Suggests Continued Upside
The Elliott Wave structure points to a continued upside movement before the next significant leg of the correction. Analysts favor a push toward the 61.8% retracement zone at $3,170, with extensions reaching up to $3,356 over the next week. This aligns with the completion of wave (B), potentially setting up for a final corrective leg (C) before a broader bullish resumption. Key microstructures on lower timeframes, such as 4-hour RSI divergences or volume spikes, will be pivotal for confirmation.
Fibonacci Levels Indicate High-Probability Targets
Fibonacci levels reveal high-probability targets at $3,170–$3,356. Broader context adds to the optimism. With Ethereum’s ecosystem thriving—spot ETF inflows surpassing $2 billion year-to-date and layer-2 scaling solutions like Optimism and Arbitrum driving transaction efficiency—fundamentals underscore the technical setup. However, risks loom: a rejection at the midline could cascade toward deeper supports at $2,437 (123.6% extension), especially if macroeconomic headwinds like Federal Reserve rate signals intensify.
Market Outlook and Trading Considerations
Correlation with Bitcoin remains tight at 0.92, meaning Bitcoin’s trajectory will heavily influence ETH’s path. For traders, this presents a high-conviction setup. Long positions above $3,000 with stops below $2,900 offer asymmetric reward potential, while shorts await clear breakdown cues. As ETH tests these levels, the crypto market watches closely—will it reclaim lost ground, or deepen the correction? The waves suggest the former, but only price action will tell.