Analyst il Capo of Crypto, recognized for his often pessimistic outlook on the cryptocurrency market, has recently shared new assessments concerning the current structure of Bitcoin.
While the analyst acknowledged a minor possibility of a short-term recovery, he firmly argued that the prevailing market trend remains distinctly downward.
Il Capo indicated that certain support levels are demonstrating effectiveness on lower timeframes. He stated, "We may see a slight short-term rebound, but the overall outlook is bearish. Many are saying this is the start of the altcoin season. In my opinion, this is just a 'dead cat bounce' and a few exit pumps."
Conditions for a Bull Market
The analyst posited that a genuine uptrend is unlikely to materialize until after a substantial market capitulation event.
Il Capo, who characterized the significant price drop on October 10th as a "pre-black swan period," expressed his intention to adopt a strongly bullish stance should a more severe decline occur. He elaborated:
“There will come a time to be bullish. Probably after a bigger capitulation than on October 10th. Then I'll be one of the most optimistic. But now is not that time.”
Current Market Data
Current market data appears to align with the analyst's cautious perspective.
Bitcoin is trading at $103,300, reflecting a 2.44% decrease over the past 24 hours. With a market capitalization of $2.06 trillion, BTC is currently trading approximately 18.26% below its all-time high of $126,198, which was recorded on October 6, 2025.