The crypto world is at the precipice of a turning point: the possibility that XRP could emerge as the ETF darling of digital assets, rewriting expectations about how institutional capital flows into the sector.
After months of skepticism, many observers now see a credible roadmap for XRP ETFs to become a dominant driver of demand—and Vincent Van Code’s recent public pivot captures that shift in sentiment.
Regulatory Momentum & ETF Timelines
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently signaled a more structured approach toward crypto-based exchange-traded products. In July 2025, it released guidance clarifying disclosure, custody, and operational requirements for crypto-linked ETFs—a move widely interpreted as an acknowledgment that these products are part of the broader capital markets landscape.
Multiple spot-XRP ETF proposals from firms like Bitwise, ProShares, 21Shares, CoinShares, and others remain pending. These applications have undergone rounds of amendments, and observers expect critical decision windows in October–November 2025. The proximity of these deadlines suggests that the ever-theoretical XRP ETF possibility could shift rapidly into execution.
After many months of holding the position "ETFs will not affect XRP price", I am pivoting.
I think the XRP ETFs are about to have a massive impact on its price. It will be seen as the one with the greatest use case and potential and become the favorite. BTC ETFs went to $100BN…
— Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) October 14, 2025
Institutional Capital as a Catalyst
If approved, XRP ETFs would provide institutional and retail money a regulated, custodial route into XRP exposure. Such vehicles tend to compress entry friction and attract large inflows—especially from investors who prefer not to manage private keys or engage directly with exchanges.
Bitcoin’s ETF evolution offers a precedent: some Bitcoin funds grew rapidly toward the $100 billion assets-under-management mark, anchoring institutional allocations into a regulated wrapper.
A similar trajectory applied to XRP could channel outsized capital toward it — especially if investors begin betting that XRP’s real-world use case grants it asymmetric upside. The introduction of an XRP ETF could therefore accelerate demand beyond the already supportive narrative of utility.
XRPL Volume & On-Ledger Pressure
Beyond the institutional story, on-chain dynamics are beginning to shift. XRPL decentralized exchange (DEX) activity has registered meaningful gains: in one week, DEX volume is reported to have surged 203%, rising from roughly $108,000 to over $300,000 in USD terms.
More broadly, the XRPL’s 24-hour DEX volume is in the multimillion-dollar range, and total DEX volume over 30 days runs into the tens of millions. Additionally, Automated Market Maker (AMM) volume on XRPL recently rose ~17% month-on-month, with DEX metrics up ~21% in that same span.
Rising on-ledger trading and settlement activity may reduce the effective float held on centralized exchanges. As traders increasingly prefer native DEX activity or withdrawals into custody, visible CEX supply tightens, making each incremental demand push more price sensitive.
Supply Tightness & Feedback Loops
Combining the supply squeeze with strong demand creates the conditions for amplified price moves. If ETF inflows begin converting into actual XRP acquisitions—and exchange inventories are simultaneously being drained—the scarcity of XRP available for trading could steepen price appreciation curves.
In effect, the system self-reinforces: as more capital competes over fewer tokens, market dynamics tip toward aggressive bid support.
This is exactly the model Van Code now believes will play out. He frames the upcoming ETF approval window as the ignition point of structural change: the moment XRP transitions from “use-case undervalued” to “ETF champion.”
Risks and Caveats
The thesis is not without risks. The SEC may delay or reject applications, or impose restrictive terms; significant portions of ETF demand might be hedged synthetically rather than converted into spot XRP.
Market makers and custodians will influence how much of the demand translates into actual buying pressure. Further, while XRPL on-chain metrics are growing, they remain modest compared to major blockchains, and activity fluctuations remain a risk.
In conclusion, Vincent Van Code’s evolving stance reflects more than opinion—it echoes a broader shift in the market narrative. Regulatory frameworks are aligning; institutional vehicles are poised; XRPL is starting to show meaningful volume shifts; and supply dynamics could rapidly evolve into a virtuous squeeze.
If the timing and execution align, XRP ETFs may not only influence the market—they could define the next regime of price discovery. Whether that outcome is realized will depend on the SEC, market structure, and execution nuance—but the plausibility has moved from speculative to nearly tangible.