A new wave of analysis is reshaping expectations for XRP as multiple market forces converge. Liquidity cycles, global bond stress, and tightening token supply are creating a narrative that many analysts believe could trigger major price movement. The latest update offers a detailed breakdown of these conditions and why they matter now.
In his recent X broadcast, Zach Rector projected near-term XRP targets between $7 and $10. His outlook combines macro signals, institutional expansion, and supply-side pressures. These elements form the core of his updated analysis while aligning with broader market data and recent ecosystem developments.
Global Bond Market Stress
Rector pointed to rising tension within the Japanese bond market. The Bank of Japan issued warnings about uncertain rate paths. Japanese regional banks now face record unrealized losses on domestic bonds. These losses surged sharply after Japan’s first rate hike since 2007. Similar pressure exists in the United States, as commercial banks also hold large unrealized losses on bond books. These stresses restrict global liquidity and increase the chance of future easing.
New Update just dropped! XRP Targets $7-$10 https://t.co/7HZD7vgCgs
— Zach Rector (@ZachRector7) December 5, 2025
Institutional Demand Through ETFs
XRP spot ETFs continue to see sustained adoption. Recent trading sessions recorded steady inflows and strong daily volume. These funds require significant XRP reserves, which removes tokens from active circulation. This trend supports the argument for a shrinking effective float on exchanges. Institutional rails are expanding, and liquidity demands are rising alongside them.
DeFi Lockups and Shrinking Tradable Supply
The launch of Firelight on Flare added another supply sink. The protocol reached its first 25 million XRP deposit cap within hours. These deposits represent tokens locked in staking, lending, or liquidity pools. The broader Flare F-asset system adds even more locked supply. When combined with ETF custody and long-term private holdings, the accessible float becomes far smaller than the reported circulating supply.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
Sentiment Indicators and Market Psychology
Social analysis from Santiment shows elevated fear across XRP communities. The data reflects a dominance of bearish commentary over bullish remarks. Historically, similar fear clusters preceded rapid price recoveries. This pattern suggests a potential turning point as sentiment nears exhaustion.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Analysts referenced by Rector point to critical support near $2.04. Holding this level could establish a new bullish wave toward higher resistance targets. A deeper retracement remains possible if this support fails. However, both main scenarios still align with projected moves toward $7 to $10. The analysis highlights a decisive period for XRP’s structure.
Final Perspective
Rector’s outlook rests on visible trends. Bond market instability limits central bank flexibility. ETF expansion strengthens institutional demand. DeFi growth continues to lock up supply. These forces shape the argument for higher XRP prices in the coming cycle. Traders should watch liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and new protocol lockups as the next market phase develops.