Key On-Chain Metrics Signal Deepening Capitulation Among Short-Term Holders
In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, on-chain metrics often provide the clearest signals amid the noise of price swings and sentiment-driven headlines. The latest data from CryptoQuant reveals a deepening capitulation among Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STH). This phenomenon is a signal that historically heralds the late stages of a market correction rather than its onset. As Bitcoin hovers around $92,000—down sharply from recent highs—the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has plunged below 0.97, indicating widespread selling at a loss. For the uninitiated, SOPR measures the profit or loss realized when Bitcoin outputs are spent.
Short-Term Holder Capitulation Is Deepening — A Classic Late-Stage Fear Structure
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2025
“Volatility may persist, but the cleansing of weak hands is well underway — and historically, that process has marked the later stages of a correction, not the beginning.” – By @xwinfinancepic.twitter.com/qdbmGqw7OY
Capitulation Metrics Flash Late-Stage Fear
A reading above 1 signifies profitable sales, while sub-1 levels point to capitulation, where holders dump assets to stem further bleeding. CryptoQuant’s chart, spanning December 2024 to November 2025, starkly illustrates this trend: the purple STH SOPR line has breached the critical 1.0 threshold, aligning with a price drop from over $120,000 peaks earlier in the year. A red horizontal line at 1.0 underscores the breach, with a blue arrow highlighting the current nadir. This isn’t uncharted territory. Analyst @xwinfinance, in a CryptoQuant QuickTake, notes: “Volatility may persist, but the cleansing of weak hands is well underway—and historically, that process has marked the later stages of a correction, not the beginning.”
Historical Cycles Suggest the Bottom Is Near
Echoing past cycles, such as the 2022 bear market low when STH SOPR bottomed near 0.90 before a multi-month rally, today’s setup suggests exhaustion among retail and speculative traders. Long-term holders (LTH), those with coins aged over 155 days, remain largely in profit—around 85% per recent data—providing a sturdy base for accumulation. Market participants are buzzing. On X, traders point to waning sell pressure from large whales and a potential shift in momentum as realized losses peak. If history rhymes, this fear structure could flip to greed swiftly, especially with macroeconomic tailwinds like anticipated rate cuts and institutional inflows via spot ETFs.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s resilience shines through: despite the dip, network fundamentals—hash rate at all-time highs and active addresses steady—affirm its store-of-value narrative. Yet, risks linger. Persistent geopolitical tensions or regulatory surprises could prolong the shakeout. Investors should monitor STH SOPR for a rebound above 1.0, a classic reversal signal. As weak hands exit, the stage is set for stronger hands to step in, potentially propelling Bitcoin toward $100,000+ by year-end. In crypto’s Darwinian arena, capitulation isn’t defeat—it’s the prelude to rebirth.