Bitcoin's price recently fell to $90,180 after testing $93,000. Although US markets are open only for half the day, BTC has already reached its daily peak and low within a few hours. If the resistance had been surpassed permanently, more favorable graphs might have emerged for the weekend. There’s still time until the daily closing, so hopes aren’t lost yet. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings has highlighted the risks related to the AI bubble.
Fitch Ratings on the AI Bubble
In its November 28 report, the credit rating agency confirms the risk of bubble formation due to increased risk appetite and rising investment spending in the AI sector. This creates a dilemma alongside the weak macroeconomic outlook, leading to an increased risk of asset bubbles.
Fitch’s baseline economic and credit scenario does not include a sudden and significant downturn caused by a recession or a capital market shock that would lead to abrupt tightening in funding and liquidity conditions. However, the emergence of bubble-like characteristics in various sectors increases the likelihood of new risk scenarios that could significantly impact global credit. Consequently, we have published a series of reports evaluating potential contagion risks to credit and exposed sectors from certain bubble risk themes and systemic tensions.
Fitch Ratings’ participation in the intense discussions around AI and asset bubbles underscores the crystallizing risks that include cryptocurrencies as well. While we may be in the early stages, accelerated investments spurred by external pressures, such as those from figures like Trump, could lose momentum by next year, slowing the bubble’s growth but increasing the risk of a burst.
2026 and Cryptocurrencies
Debates over the AI bubble will likely remain on the agenda into the new year. With the Supreme Court’s tariff decision expected around February or March, the situation could become intriguing. The Fed has already made consecutive interest rate cuts, stating their reluctance to push too close to the neutral interest rate.
The most likely scenario is a slowdown in interest rate cuts until the Fed chair’s change in May. Throughout the year, three rate cuts are expected. In an environment where the Supreme Court’s decision dampens risk appetite, continued discussions about the AI bubble would exacerbate the volatility of risk markets.
In summary, it’s likely that the first quarter of the next year will show volatility not in favor of bulls. This situation could be the underlying cause for the ongoing waves of cryptocurrency sales.
