Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into this week’s Federal Reserve meeting with traders once again wondering if a rate cut will arrive and whether the price could repeat the sharp pullbacks seen after the previous two cuts on September 17 and October 29. The outcome could shape market direction into year-end, with analysts watching leverage and stablecoin flows rather than the headline decision itself.
Short-Term Bounce Followed by Weakness
According to XWIN Research Japan, both the September and October rate-cut announcements exhibited a similar pattern: prices rose in the days leading up to the announcements, briefly increased after the news, and then declined for weeks. That setup, the group explained, fits a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction.
XWIN also added two on-chain signals to watch: stablecoin exchange reserves, which indicate whether new capital is accumulating to buy dips, and funding rates, which reflect the degree of crowding in leveraged positions.
The December FOMC could follow the familiar pattern of ‘up first, down later,’ the market watchers wrote. But the decisive factors will be stablecoin inflows and the market’s leverage structure.
In the firm’s experts’ opinion, high long-side funding could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to renewed liquidations. Traders got a taste of this over the weekend, with thin market liquidity triggering violent swings and wiping out more than $500 million in leveraged positions.
Furthermore, they pointed out that the current demand is coming almost entirely from the United States, with Europe and Asia now net sellers, which is a structure that supports short-term price moves, but leaves the market leaning heavily on a single region.
Ahead of the meeting, Bitcoin is trading at around $91,500, up about 2% in the last 24 hours but still down nearly 11% over the past month, according to data.
Longer-Term Forces Suggest Accumulation
Beyond the immediate Fed decision, a complex set of fundamental factors is at play. For instance, CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain recently described Bitcoin as wrestling with the psychologically key $100,000 level.
According to them, the asset’s Growth Rate Difference dipped into negative territory, meaning its market cap has been falling faster than its realized value. That reading tends to appear near a weakening market structure and could help explain the hesitation below six-figure territory.
At the same time, another assessment by XWIN shows that the cryptocurrency’s long-term ownership base is strengthening, with a notable reduction in profit-taking by long-term holders.
Additionally, institutional adoption continues its quiet march, with global treasury holdings of Bitcoin by nations, companies, and funds crossing the 4 million BTC threshold, signaling a gradual shift from a speculative asset to a strategic reserve.
But for this week, the focus will mostly be on one thing: how Bitcoin behaves after the FOMC speaks, with Japanese analyst Fumihiro Arasawa advising traders to take a “defensive stance” around the meeting because past cuts have brought heavy volatility despite sounding positive at first glance.
XWIN shared similar sentiments, cautioning that rather than betting on the outcome, the most practical strategy would be for market participants to focus on “reducing exposure and preparing risk-controlled scenarios.”