Ethereum's Price Trajectory and Key Support Levels
Ether (ETH) has experienced a significant rebound, climbing 11% since its dip below the $3,000 mark on November 22. The cryptocurrency has successfully reclaimed crucial support levels, leading analysts to predict a potential recovery towards $3,600. This optimistic outlook is attributed to increasing institutional demand and the anticipated end of quantitative tightening, which is expected to inject liquidity into crypto markets.
Key indicators suggest a positive trend for Ethereum:
- •Ethereum's demand is showing signs of recovery, coinciding with positive inflows into Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
- •The conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 is poised to unlock significant liquidity for cryptocurrency markets.
- •Technical analysis of Ether's price action reveals a V-shaped chart pattern, which, if key support levels are maintained, points to a potential target of $3,600.
Surge in Ethereum's Apparent Demand
Ethereum's Apparent Demand metric has reached its highest point since September 2023, demonstrating sustained positive momentum despite recent price fluctuations. This metric measures the market demand for Ether by calculating the difference between daily ETH issuance and the change in supply that has remained inactive for over a year. A positive value indicates an increase in demand.
Data from Capriole Investments highlights a substantial increase in Ether's Apparent Demand, rising from 37,990 ETH on November 22 to 90,995 ETH on November 26. This sharp rise suggests aggressive accumulation by investors during price dips, signaling a potential imminent rebound.
The previous instance of such high demand occurred in September 2023, when Ethereum's price was trading between $1,500 and $1,700 following a 25% drawdown. This period was followed by a remarkable 165% rally, pushing the price to $4,100 by March 2024.
Furthermore, spot Ethereum ETF flows have turned positive, recording three consecutive days of inflows totaling $230.9 million. This reversal follows a challenging period from November 11 to 20, during which Ethereum funds experienced combined outflows of $1.28 billion, marking one of the longest and most significant periods of outflows since the ETFs were launched.
The ability of Ether to sustain its recovery above the $2,800 support level is bolstered by the expectation that increased demand and positive ETF inflows will provide the necessary momentum to drive ETH prices higher.
Historical Precedents for Ether's Rebound Following End of Quantitative Tightening
The impending end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) by the U.S. Federal Reserve on December 1 is a significant event with historical implications for Ethereum's price performance. Past instances of QT ending have consistently preceded substantial rallies in ETH.
The cessation of QT typically results in the return of liquidity to the market, which often triggers a rebound in risk assets. Crypto analysts Front Runners highlighted this trend in a recent post on X, noting: "QT ends on Dec. 1 - it’s a good time to zoom out and look at how crypto behaved the last time this happened."
An accompanying chart revealed that altcoins historically outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in the period following the end of QT in the previous cycle. The analysts further elaborated, stating that "BTC had already been in a 200-day downtrend, and liquidity rotation favoured smaller assets."
The provided chart also indicates that Bitcoin dominance peaked immediately after QT concluded and subsequently trended lower, forming a double top during the COVID-19 period before resuming its decline.
Front Runners observed a key difference in the current cycle: "The difference this time is that BTC is already below the 50W SMA, last cycle it only lost that level well after QT ended."
If historical patterns hold true, the end of QT could initiate a significant liquidity rotation, potentially leading altcoins, with ETH at the forefront, to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.
The Critical $2,800 Support Zone for Ethereum
Analysis of Ethereum's cost basis distribution data from Glassnode reveals a significant concentration of investors who acquired approximately 4.95 million ETH at an average cost between $2,800 and $2,830. This cluster forms a crucial support zone, suggesting that many investors may actively defend the price around this level, potentially serving as a launchpad for a future rally.
Analysts emphasize that for bulls to regain control and initiate an upward movement, ETH must hold this critical support at $2,800. Daan Crypto Trades, in a recent X post, stated: "Ethereum is trading back at its big $2.8K level, which has acted as a strong support and resistance throughout this entire cycle. It is essential for the bulls to defend this area."
Conversely, a break and sustained close below the $2,800 level could signal the commencement of the next phase of a downward trend, potentially leading the price towards $2,400 and subsequently to the $2,100 level.
Technical Analysis: Ether's V-Shaped Pattern and $3,600 Target
From a technical analysis standpoint, Ether's price action on the four-hour chart has been forming a potential V-shaped pattern since early November. Currently, ETH is trading below a significant supply zone situated between $3,000 and $3,500, an area where the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs) are located.
For bulls to increase the likelihood of a price surge towards the neckline of the V-shaped pattern at $3,650, a decisive push above this resistance zone is required. Such a move would represent a substantial 26% increase from current price levels.
On the downside, the 50 SMA has provided crucial support at $2,891, reinforcing the significance of the demand area previously identified around $2,800.
Commenting on the ETH/BTC chart, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, expressed optimism about Ether's future performance, suggesting that ETH is poised for a strong upward move in the coming weeks. He stated, "This cycle is far from over."
This chart remains super interesting, as I think that we'll see a strong breakout upwards in the coming weeks for $ETH.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 26, 2025
I repeat: This cycle is far from over. pic.twitter.com/T1wFgVAN44