Year-to-date, domestic chipmaker Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has significantly outperformed NVDA stock, achieving 100.5% growth compared to NVDA's 28%. As one of our most covered semiconductor stocks, this performance is not surprising.
Over the years, we’ve consistently noted that Intel enjoys strategic protection, despite its cyclical shortcomings in deploying chips against fabless competitors like AMD. Specifically, we laid out in January, when INTC was trading at $22.12 per share, that “Intel should be viewed as too big/important to fail.”
Following President Trump’s personal attacks on Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, we’ve also maintained that Intel has strong positioning in the US hegemony tech stack. Likewise, in late October, we outlined key drivers pushing Intel’s stock toward $38 per share.
At press time, INTC stock is trading at $40.01, above the Wall Street Journal’s average price target consensus of $38.30 per share. Altogether, Intel serves as a good reminder to have exposure to purported underdogs while limiting exposure to hyped stocks like Nvidia. But at this point, is it time to lock in profits?
Examining Upcoming Intel Narratives
In March, we noted that Intel 18A node process deployment is a make-or-break milestone for the company. After years of lagging and technical hiccups with the Raptor Lake lineup, the Panther Lake architecture is built upon two novelties – RibbonFET and PowerVia – which already started with Intel 20A in the “angstrom era.”
Together, these innovations directly challenge TSMC’s dominance in power efficiency, specifically competing against TSMC’s N2 (2nm) node technology.
Not fully leveraging 18A would mean missing a critical technological advancement, which would set the company back long-term, as it happened during the beleaguered rollout of the 10nm node. This will become clearer as we progress further into 2026.
Although chips at this level of complexity are subject to higher silicon lottery risks, as we explained in early August, we also noted that silicon yield is likely to improve on a monthly basis. At November’s RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications (TIMT) conference, Intel’s VP John Pitzer reported a 7% monthly 18A yield ramp-up.
This aligns with the industry average and puts the Panther Lake lineup on schedule for mass volume production. When it comes to 14A development as the follow-up, Pitzer noted that it is in even better shape than 18A.
“If you look at where we are today on 14A on performance and yield versus a similar point of development on 18A, we’re significantly further ahead on 14. So we’re feeling very good about 14.”
In the meantime, it appears that Apple is in the process of qualifying Intel 18A for its lowest-end M-series processor, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on X. These chips are used in iPad Pro and MacBook Air, with combined expected shipments up to 20 million units in 2026 and into 2027, following 20 million units shipped in 2025.
Such a move fits perfectly into the wider narrative. As we explained recently in Apple foldable coverage, Apple enjoys a privileged status as well. Not only did President Trump exempt Apple from several tariffs, but he continued the Huawei ban, Apple’s fierce competitor.
In return for such benefits, it would make sense for Apple to boost domestic chip-making capacity at the benefit of Intel, in which the US government has a 9.9% stake. As always, it is prudent to view the American economic system as highly centralized and planned, similar to China’s. Additionally, although Taiwan’s TSMC is effectively a part of the US military protectorate, it still remains a liability, being situated next to mainland China.
Mid-2020, Apple announced its departure from Intel after a 15-year partnership due to TSMC being ahead of Intel in node process deployment. Conversely, a return would signal Intel’s renewed competitiveness and ability to meet Apple’s strict performance and efficiency standards.
Intel Foundry Still Bleeding but Financials Improving
In the Q3 earnings report delivered in late October, Intel’s revenue grew 3% year-over-year to $13.7 billion. From the year-ago quarter, the company’s gross margin improved 23.2 points, while its R&D and administrative expenses went down significantly, by 20%.
It appears that Lip-Bu Tan’s restructuring plan is working, as he promised to lower operating expenses by $500 million in 2025 and $1 billion during 2026, in particular by eliminating middle management bloat. Although the Intel Foundry division suffered a $2.3 billion operating loss in Q3, it is a drastic improvement over the $5.8 billion loss in the year-ago quarter.
Of all Intel’s business divisions, only Data Center and AI (DCAI) and Foundry were down at 1% and 2% annual decrease respectively. Intel’s Client Computing Group (CCG) continues to be the core of the company, delivering $8.5 billion revenue at 5% YoY growth.
Although DCAI revenue dipped 1% year-over-year, Intel’s expanding collaboration with Nvidia and ongoing government and SoftBank backing should meaningfully accelerate growth in upcoming quarters. After all, the $500 billion hyperscaling Stargate AI initiative – initially launched by Oracle, OpenAI, and Softbank – is only starting to ramp up.
In the long-run, regardless of the midterms and President Trump’s plummeting ratings, investors should see a bipartisan continuity of “America’s AI Action Plan,” published by the White House in July. That’s because interests building up the AI military industrial complex are not beholden to the political class and its PR-facing electoral cycles.
The Bottom Line
Considering the skyrocketing prices of memory modules, making it the worst period to build PCs, Intel’s CCG division is likely to face a revenue decline in Q4, a seasonally softer quarter even under normal conditions.
Nonetheless, Intel has a lot going for it beyond Q4 – leadership imposing financial discipline, a sound roadmap, a bullish AI infrastructure narrative, and Apple returning to the fold.
In the end, it all comes back to the wider picture we laid out a year-ago, in which AI-powered algorithmic control is the holy grail of governance. In that picture, there is no way Intel is not a beneficiary as the only US chipmaking company preparing for global scaling.
However, existing shareholders should take profits if they’ve entered INTC stock exposure at the beginning of the year as we suggested.
The author does not hold or have a position in any securities discussed in the article. All stock prices were quoted at the time of writing.