XRP remains under pressure as its month-long downtrend continues, pulling the altcoin closer to the critical $2 level. The question now is whether the growing anticipation surrounding potential XRP ETF approvals can help prevent a deeper drop. XRP currently trades at $2.14.
Reasons for Price Pressure and Conflicting Signals
The current price weakness stems from bearish activity among retail holders, countered by long-term accumulation by whales:
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Retail Selling Pressure (Bearish): XRP's exchange net position is showing its first confirmed inflow in over a month. This shift signals that retail investors are selling their holdings and positioning for potential downside, indicating a worsening short-term sentiment.
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Whale Accumulation (Bullish): Aggressive buying activity from large holders is attempting to counter the overall selling effect. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP have accumulated an additional 1.1 billion XRP in the past week, signaling sustained optimism about long-term price performance.
ETF Anticipation as a Catalyst
The likelihood of an ETF approval is a key factor stabilizing the current price:
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Growing Anticipation: The growing anticipation surrounding potential XRP ETF approvals (with Bitwise's reportedly next in line) may help XRP avoid a deeper decline.
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Regulatory Backlog: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the SEC released guidance to speed up filing effectiveness, which could accelerate the approval process and instantly improve market sentiment.
Critical Support and Price Targets
The immediate outlook is defined by the existing support level and key resistance targets:
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Critical Support: XRP currently rests on a key support level at $2.14.
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Upside Targets: If bullish momentum continues and ETF expectations strengthen, XRP is projected to climb to $2.28 and then $2.36, which would break the current downtrend.
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Downside Risk (Invalidation): If retail selling increases or ETF decisions are delayed, XRP may resume its slide and potentially drop 6.8% to reach $2.00. Hitting this level would invalidate the current bullish thesis.
Final Conclusion
Despite strong whale accumulation, XRP remains in a month-long downtrend driven by short-term retail selling. The price is currently resting on a critical support level at $2.14. The primary catalyst for a breakout above the downtrend and a move towards $2.36 is a positive development regarding the anticipated XRP ETF approval. Without this external catalyst, the coin risks drifting lower toward the psychologically and technically significant $2.00 level.
Important Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on technical analysis and market data. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.