Gemini's Expansion into Prediction Markets
Gemini, the crypto exchange led by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is preparing to enter the prediction market space as part of its broader expansion strategy. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the company plans to introduce prediction market contracts soon, signaling a major step toward diversifying its trading products.
The move comes as Gemini awaits regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for its application to operate as a designated contract market. This license would authorize the platform to run derivatives trading, which could include event-based contracts for predicting outcomes across multiple sectors.
In a filing ahead of its September initial public offering, Gemini hinted at its intention to launch event contracts tied to forecasts in economics, finance, politics, and sports. The exchange’s upcoming venture highlights its ambition to compete in a market segment that is rapidly attracting traders seeking new ways to speculate on real-world events.
Prediction Markets Gain Widespread Attention
Prediction markets have witnessed remarkable growth this year, driven by the success of established platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi dominated in October with $4.4 billion in trading volume, while Polymarket followed closely at $3 billion as it geared up for a U.S. relaunch.
Regulatory attitudes have also begun to shift. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has recently adopted a more open stance toward prediction markets, viewing them as innovative tools that merge finance, information, and public sentiment. This evolving approach could make Gemini’s entry smoother and more sustainable.
Moreover, major financial and sports organizations are entering the prediction market scene. Robinhood partnered with Kalshi in August to offer event contracts for NFL and NCAA College Football games. In a similar development, the National Hockey League signed multi-year agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, marking a historic collaboration between a major sports league and prediction platforms.
Gemini’s planned expansion reflects the Winklevoss twins’ determination to position the exchange at the center of a growing financial trend. As the demand for event-based trading accelerates, the company’s entry into prediction markets could mark a pivotal chapter in its mission to bridge traditional finance and digital innovation.