Gemini Space Station Inc. is preparing to launch prediction market contracts after filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a derivatives exchange license, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. Sources familiar with the plans indicated the exchange aims to roll out the offering as quickly as possible.
The filing came in May and established the regulatory groundwork for Gemini to operate event contracts. These instruments allow participants to speculate on real-world outcomes ranging from sports results to economic forecasts. The exchange hinted at this expansion in documents released before its September initial public offering.
Gemini's Strategic Expansion and Market Performance
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss took Gemini public in September, securing $433 million in funding at a $4.4 billion valuation. The prediction markets push represents one of the company's most significant strategic moves since that milestone. Gemini's stock closed Tuesday at $16.29, down 8.43% and trading 55.97% below its $37 IPO price.
Industry-Wide Surge in Prediction Platforms
The timing aligns with surging interest in prediction platforms industry-wide. Kalshi reported $4.4 billion in monthly volume during October, hitting an all-time high. Polymarket processed $3 billion in the same period and plans to reenter the U.S. market soon.
Major players across finance and crypto have entered the space recently. Coinbase, MetaMask, DraftKings, and Sam Altman's World have either integrated or announced plans to add prediction markets. The New York Stock Exchange's parent company invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation.
Shifting Regulatory Landscape for Prediction Markets
Regulatory attitudes toward prediction markets have shifted considerably. The CFTC softened its previously restrictive stance and now views the sector as an innovative intersection of information and finance. Robinhood partnered with Kalshi in August to offer National Football League and NCAA College Football contracts.
The National Hockey League signed multi-year licensing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket, marking the first time a major U.S. sports league partnered with prediction platforms. Weekly trading volume on Kalshi reached $1.2 billion between Oct. 27 and Nov. 2, surpassing the previous record of $1.01 billion set the week before.
Upcoming Earnings and Contract Scope
Gemini is scheduled to release its first earnings report as a publicly traded company on Nov. 10. The company stated in its IPO filings that event contracts would cover economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts.