Precious Metals Surge Amidst Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Gold and silver have reached fresh all-time highs, prompting Bitwise research to suggest that this "gold first, Bitcoin later" rotation could precede a delayed, parabolic rally for Bitcoin over the next four to seven months. Global precious metals markets experienced unprecedented levels this week, with gold and silver breaking previous all-time highs. Industry analysts interpret this performance as a potential indicator for a forthcoming Bitcoin rally.
Gold crossed a significant psychological threshold per ounce, according to data from Gold Price, while silver surpassed a notable level, pushing its market capitalization to a record high for the first time. Experts are predicting further potential increases in gold prices. This surge in hard assets reflects investor movement away from sovereign debt amidst growing global macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market observers. Bitcoin also surpassed its highest level of the year during the same period, though its movement appeared more restrained compared to precious metals.
The Gold-Bitcoin Rally Debate Continues
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, has stated that gold prices often serve as a leading indicator for the cryptocurrency market. Through statistical causality tests, Dragosch has demonstrated that gold tends to anticipate Bitcoin’s movements with a lag of between four and seven months. This "Gold to Bitcoin Rotation" pattern suggests that institutional capital moves into digital assets after initially taking refuge in gold, once risk appetite stabilizes, according to Dragosch’s analysis. Analyst Sminston has noted that while gold is currently in a phase of "parabolic price discovery," Bitcoin is only in the early stages of a corresponding shift.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has drawn a comparison between the current Bitcoin market and gold’s rally in 2025. Hougan explained that gold’s parabolic rally was a result of supply depletion following years of massive central bank purchases. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024, these instruments have acquired over 100 percent of the new supply issued, according to Hougan. He stated that while the price has been restrained by sales from long-term holders, Bitcoin could experience a vertical revaluation once these sellers exhaust their holdings, mirroring what occurred with gold.
Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment
Recent criminal investigations involving top management at the Federal Reserve have affected dollar stability, according to reports. Market analysts note that gold reacts immediately as a primary safe haven asset, while Bitcoin attracts capital after initial market shocks have been absorbed. On Deribit, traders are reportedly betting on high-strike calls for March and higher strikes in later months, according to options market data. Analysts point to short-term targets for Bitcoin substantially above current levels, should the historical correlation with gold persist. This scenario would represent a percentage gain similar to silver’s performance, which historically tends to outperform gold in the late stages of bullish physical commodities markets, according to market analysts.