Bitcoin and gold are once again moving in lockstep, reviving their long-standing comparison as reliable stores of value. Often dubbed “digital gold,” Bitcoin has been viewed as a modern-day safe haven, much like the precious metal that has served that role for centuries. On Monday, both assets reached new milestones—Bitcoin climbed to $126,000, while gold rose past $4,000 per ounce, its highest level in history. Market analysts believe this surge in gold could lay the groundwork for a significant rise in Bitcoin after its next halving in 2028.
In brief
- •Analysts believe gold’s surge could set the stage for Bitcoin to reach half of gold’s market cap after its next halving.
- •Ted Pillows highlighted that Bitcoin’s price often follows gold with an eight-week lag and expects strong gains for Bitcoin in the final quarter of the year.
- •Gold has outperformed Bitcoin so far this year, even as institutional interest in the cryptocurrency continues to grow.
Analysts Project Bitcoin’s Potential as Gold Surges
Gold’s price moving past $4,000 per ounce has pushed its estimated total value to around $27 trillion. Based on current projections, several expect Bitcoin’s overall value could reach roughly half the size of gold’s by 2028—about $13.5 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, said he believes BTC could eventually reach half of gold’s market value after the next halving. He explained that much of gold’s worth comes from its role as a store of value rather than from jewelry or industrial use.
In a similar way, younger investors, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly turning to Bitcoin for that purpose. Based on gold’s current price, he suggested that if Bitcoin’s market value grows to half of gold’s, each coin could trade around $644,000.
Meanwhile, another market observer, Ted Pillows, noted that“BTC has been highly correlated to gold with an 8‑week lag. Right now, Gold is hitting new highs, which means Bitcoin will do this next. Maybe we could see another correction, but overall Q4 will be big for Bitcoin.”
Analysts Divided on the BTC‑Gold Balance
While Bitcoin continues to attract attention, gold has outperformed it so far this year, rising about 50%. The metal’s strength has been driven by global economic uncertainty, a softer US dollar, and unpredictable tariff policies, all of which have boosted demand for more stable assets. Many investors have turned to gold as a safe place to park their money while markets remain volatile.
Market veteran Peter Brandt believes gold’s momentum could continue before any major pullback occurs. He suggested that the metal may rise even higher in the near term, warning that “all‑in” FOMO buyers at these levels will need deep pockets in the future.
On the other hand, Peter Schiff, a longtime gold supporter and one of Bitcoin’s critics, has downplayed Bitcoin’s latest rally. While he acknowledged BTC’s recent climb to $126,000, he pointed out that the digital asset remains roughly 15% below its all‑time high when measured against gold’s value. According to Schiff, “Based on where gold is now, Bitcoin would have to rise to about $148K to match its record high priced in gold.”
Even with Bitcoin still trailing gold, institutions are showing growing confidence in its long‑term potential. Deutsche Bank recently forecast that central banks may begin including Bitcoin in their reserves over the next five years. Such a move would mark a significant turning point in how traditional financial systems view the digital asset. For now, gold still leads as the world’s most trusted store of value, but BTC’s momentum continues to build as it gains broader acceptance.