OKX executive Haider Rafique warns that government‑established strategic BTC reserves could negatively impact both Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar. The Global Managing Partner argues that large government holdings enable price manipulation through market sell‑offs.
Rafique believes government BTC accumulation undermines Bitcoin's core attributes of decentralization and neutrality. He questions what happens when future administrations reverse previous decisions, creating liquidation risks for concentrated holdings.
The German government's 2024 sale of 50,000 BTC exemplifies this concern, keeping prices suppressed below $60,000. Administrative policies change quickly, and concentrated BTC positions represent potential liquidation threats over time.
Despite bipartisan crypto support, Rafique emphasizes that government policies remain volatile. New administrations could overturn previous Bitcoin strategic reserve decisions, triggering massive market disruptions.
BTC advocates view national reserves as crucial steps toward establishing Bitcoin as the global reserve currency. However, such moves could trigger widespread macroeconomic shocks beyond crypto markets.
The most significant implication would involve lost confidence in the U.S. dollar, Rafique explains. Building a Bitcoin reserve signals dollar weakness and inability to sustain value through economic strength alone.
This could send shockwaves through financial systems as investors flee dollars for safe‑haven assets like gold or Swiss francs. Risk‑on asset dumping would create liquidation cascades across markets, potentially culminating in significant crashes.
Rafique concludes that national Bitcoin reserves affect not only crypto markets but could also trigger systemic risks in the global financial system transformation. The interconnected nature of modern finance amplifies potential disruption from such policy shifts.