PENGU has spent more than four months grinding lower, shedding over 80% from its peak and falling out of focus for most traders.
But this extended downtrend, paired with a sudden burst of strength, has brought the token back onto watchlists, including Altcoin Sherpa’s, who highlighted it as one of his top setups to monitor right now.
The latest price action shows a market that may be transitioning from deep capitulation into early accumulation. After a long period of weakness, PENGU finally posted a strong breakout day, catching attention across trading desks. The question now is whether this move was a one-off spike or the first sign that a larger structural reversal is forming.
Chart Shows First Real Strength After 130+ Days of Decline
The chart offers a clear picture. For 135 days, PENGU trended lower, losing nearly 80% from its peak. This type of prolonged bleed rarely ends with a single flush; it typically requires both time-based and price-based capitulation.
Altcoin Sherpa emphasized exactly that: he is watching for time-driven exhaustion, not just sharp wicks or panic selling. In long downtrends, the market eventually runs out of sellers, flattening out before any meaningful bounce can occur.
The TradingView chart now shows:
- •A multi-month downtrend beginning to level out
- •A noticeable shift in volume as PENGU surged sharply in the past 24 hours
- •A breakout from the recent micro-range, followed by consolidation at higher levels
This is the first time in months the token has shown vertical movement with follow-through rather than fading instantly. It doesn’t confirm a full reversal, but it does confirm that momentum has returned.
Why Traders Are Watching This Zone Closely
Sherpa describes this area as "interesting" for one specific reason: PENGU was previously one of the leaders early in the cycle. Leading coins that retrace 70-80% and then stabilize often become strong performers in later phases.
His view is very clear; he is not looking for long-term swing entries like ZEC here. Instead, he sees PENGU forming the ingredients of a time-based capitulation bottom, followed by a potentially playable upside setup.
$PENGU is a coin high on my watchlist. It was 1 of the leaders before, has chopped down 130+ days and gone down 80% and is at an interesting area. I'm looking for TIME based capitulation as well as price overall. I'm not looking to long stuff like ZEC other than a scalp.
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) December 3, 2025
PENGU… pic.twitter.com/hTiNPyzghI
Key context from his commentary:
- •PENGU already endured its major downside event
- •Price has reached a zone where previous volume clusters are thick
- •A breakout day after so much bleeding suggests early accumulation
- •He is not calling for an immediate moonshot, just positioning ahead of a possible larger cycle
This matches what the chart shows: a heavy downtrend with the first real interruption.
Ali Martinez, on the other hand, suggests that PENGU may have finally found its bottom, pointing to a fresh TD Sequential weekly buy signal as confirmation that momentum is shifting after a prolonged downtrend.
The bottom could be in, and $PENGU is ready to run it back.
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 3, 2025
TD Sequential just flashed a weekly buy signal! pic.twitter.com/GnDXypYfSM
His chart highlights the first notable reversal candle following a series of heavy weekly declines, implying that sellers could be exhausted and that PENGU is positioned for a potential recovery phase.
What Comes Next for PENGU?
The next few days will determine whether this breakout becomes a trend or fades back into the range. If PENGU continues to hold the higher consolidation levels from the recent surge, it would confirm that buyers finally overwhelmed sellers after months of pressure.
If momentum continues, the first major level of interest will be the top of the local volume profile, the area where the chart shows a thick band of previous activity. Breaking above this would signal that the market has fully accepted the shift.
If the move fades, PENGU will likely slip back into sideways accumulation until another catalyst appears.
For now, traders like Sherpa are simply doing what smart traders do during deep cycle rotations: watching patiently, looking for confirmation, and preparing for the moment when a beaten-down leader turns into a recovery candidate.
PENGU had its strongest day in months, and that alone makes it worth tracking, especially after an 80% reset.