The recent debut of XRP Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has injected renewed optimism into the market, with these investment products continuing to attract substantial capital. Since their launch, these funds have accumulated approximately $666 million across 11 trading sessions, representing the acquisition of over 300 million XRP tokens in less than two weeks.
Amidst this acceleration of inflows, analysts and market commentators are revisiting an earlier outlook from JPMorgan that could have significant implications for XRP's future value if the projection proves accurate.
JPMorgan Forecasts Substantial Inflows for XRP ETFs
In January 2025, a team of JPMorgan analysts, including Madeline Daleiden, Alexander Bernstein, Kenneth B. Worthington, and Michael Cho, published a research report that evaluated potential asset flows for upcoming altcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs). This report provided projections for both Solana and XRP ETFs.
The analysts estimated that Solana ETFs could attract between $3 billion and $6 billion in their first six to twelve months of trading. The same report suggested that XRP products could draw even more capital, projecting net new inflows ranging from $4 billion to $8 billion over the same period. This assessment was based on observed adoption patterns of earlier Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs.
The report highlighted that Bitcoin ETFs absorbed an amount equivalent to 6% of Bitcoin's market capitalization in their first year, gathering around $108 billion. Furthermore, Ethereum ETFs gathered approximately 3% of their market capitalization within six months, translating to about $12 billion.
The JPMorgan analysts applied these adoption ratios to the considerably smaller market valuations of Solana and XRP. They concluded that both assets could jointly experience as much as $14 billion in total ETF inflows, even with expectations of lighter overall demand compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Potential XRP Price Impact Based on JPMorgan's Forecast
If JPMorgan's projected inflows for XRP ETFs materialize as forecasted, the market could witness a significant price reaction. While determining the exact scale of this reaction is complex, an analysis using Google Gemini offers a theoretical perspective.
Gemini's projection was based on JPMorgan's upper estimate of $8 billion in new ETF inflows. It also incorporated a liquidity-based model known as the Bank of America multiplier. This model suggests that limited asset availability can lead to a market capitalization increase that is disproportionately larger than the amount of money entering the market.
Gemini referenced a widely cited Bank of America analysis indicating that approximately $93 million of net inflows could move Bitcoin by roughly 1%, implying a multiplier of about 118. The AI chatbot applied this same ratio to XRP for a bullish theoretical scenario.
Based on these assumptions, Gemini applied the $8 billion inflow and multiplied it by 118, resulting in an estimated increase of $944 billion in market capitalization. Adding this amount to the current valuation produced a theoretical new market cap of approximately $1.07 trillion.
The AI chatbot then divided this figure by the circulating supply to generate a hypothetical price of $17.86 for each XRP token. According to Gemini, this scenario would represent an eight-fold price increase from current levels.
Projected Gains for Investors Holding 1,000 to 5,000 XRP
Such a price movement would result in substantial gains for everyday investors, many of whom have held XRP through periods of slow price action and market uncertainty. Current data indicates that more than 596,000 wallets hold between 1,000 and 5,000 XRP.
At current prices, these holdings range from roughly $2,200 to about $11,000, placing most of these holders in the category of everyday retail investors. If XRP were to rise to the $17.86 level suggested in Gemini’s hypothetical scenario, these holdings would increase dramatically.
Specifically, a wallet containing 1,000 XRP, currently valued at around $2,200, would see its value rise to approximately $17,860, representing a profit of $15,660. Investors holding 5,000 XRP would experience their stake grow from about $11,000 today to approximately $89,300, marking a profit of over $78,000.
It is important to note that both JPMorgan's inflow forecast and Gemini's price projection are theoretical and not guaranteed outcomes.