A new wave of excitement is building around XRP, not because of a sudden price spike, but because analysts are starting to seriously consider what could happen if spot XRP ETFs keep draining XRP from exchanges at the pace we’re seeing now.
If that plays out over the next 17 months, even small bags of 1,000 to 5,000 XRP could end up being worth far more than most people expect.
The discussion picked up after TheCryptoBasic highlighted early ETF flow data that surprised almost everyone. In just eleven trading days, the four new XRP spot ETFs soaked up roughly $666 million worth of XRP. That’s more than all six Solana ETFs combined in their first 23 days.
The speed of this accumulation is exactly why some analysts believe ETFs could eventually drain the remaining liquid supply sitting on exchanges, something that could create real scarcity.
Exchanges Are Losing XRP Fast
To get a clearer sense of how much XRP is actually left for ETF issuers to buy, Digital Perspectives founder Brad Kimes asked Grok, the AI model, to analyze the remaining liquid supply.
According to Grok, major exchanges like Binance, Upbit, Bithumb, and OKX hold somewhere between 5 and 6 billion XRP in tradable reserves.
Binance alone holds about 2.71 billion XRP, but even that number is shrinking, down 300 million since early October and another 100 million after the ETF launches in mid-November.
Grok also pointed out a pretty remarkable detail: exchanges collectively lost about 73 million XRP in a single day. That tells you ETFs and larger buyers are scooping up supply faster than the market can replenish it.
When only 9% to 11% of all circulating XRP is still liquid on exchanges, it doesn’t take much to tighten the market.
How Long Until ETFs Drain That Supply?
Kimes then asked Grok to estimate how long it would take for ETFs to remove that remaining supply if inflows continued at the same pace.
Looking at ETF data from November 25–27, Grok calculated that issuers were buying around $26 million worth of XRP per day. At a price of $2.20, that comes out to about 11.8 million XRP daily.
If You Hold 1,000 to 5,000 $XRP, Here’s What It Could Be Worth if ETFs Drain XRP’s Exchange Supply in 17 Months. #Ripple 🧵🧵🧵 pic.twitter.com/DPLV2eON9n
— TheCryptoBasic (@thecryptobasic) November 29, 2025
At that rate, it would take around 422 days to absorb 5 billion XRP and roughly 506 days to absorb 6 billion, meaning a full drain within about 14 to 17 months.
What Happens to XRP Price If This Actually Happens?
To understand how XRP might react to that kind of supply shock, the analysis turned to Google Gemini. The model explained that crypto rarely moves in straight lines when supply thins out.
Instead, prices tend to accelerate because buyers have to pay more and more to convince remaining holders to sell. Gemini pointed to Bank of America’s 2021 analysis showing that every $1 flowing into Bitcoin during tight supply periods added about $118 to total market value.
Using a similar framework, Gemini laid out several possible price zones. The first major jump sits in the $8–$13 range. A deeper supply squeeze could send the XRP price toward $20–$25, especially if investors start valuing it alongside Ethereum during a future bull run.
In a full-blown liquidity vacuum where ETFs simply can’t find sellers, Gemini said the XRP price could break above $50.
For anyone holding 1,000 to 5,000 XRP, these levels would push portfolio values into territory few imagined even a year ago. Whether the full supply drain happens is still up for debate, but the numbers behind the scenario are gaining a lot of interest.