Analyst Benjamin Cowen anticipates that Bitcoin could reach its cycle peak towards the end of 2025, a projection aligned with past election-year cycles. This outlook suggests a significant downturn could follow in the subsequent year.
Cowen's analysis is grounded in Bitcoin's historical performance, which he notes follows a consistent four-year rhythm. Major highs have historically occurred after U.S. presidential elections, with significant peaks recorded in 2013, 2017, and 2021. If this pattern continues, 2025 is poised to be the next period of peak valuation.
He further explained that the midterm year following a peak typically ushers in a market reset. Periods such as 2014, 2018, and 2022 serve as examples of post-peak phases where the market retreated to establish new foundations.
Signals Hint at an Aging Rally
Despite current strong price action, Cowen identifies subtle indicators suggesting the rally is maturing. The Bitcoin dominance index, which measures Bitcoin's proportion of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, has climbed to approximately 66%. This rise indicates a trend of capital concentrating in Bitcoin, often seen as a safer asset within the crypto space, rather than diversifying into riskier altcoins. Historically, this has preceded periods of reduced market liquidity.
Cowen also highlighted the 50-week moving average, currently near $100,000, as a critical structural level. A decline below this average, he stated, would likely signal the conclusion of the current bull phase. He observed that increasing dominance coupled with slowing momentum are early indicators of cooling market exuberance.
Quiet Hype, Slower Cycles
A notable difference in the current cycle, according to Cowen, is the apparent absence of the widespread speculative mania typically associated with Bitcoin peaks. He described it as one of the "quietest near-high markets" he has witnessed, with search trends and social media engagement lagging behind previous cycles.
Cowen interprets this subdued activity not as a bearish sign, but rather as evidence of a maturing market characterized by diminishing returns and extended, more stable cycles. He suggests that the dramatic "blow-off tops" of the past may be evolving into more subtle market movements.
Ethereum and Solana Ride the Same Wave
Cowen anticipates that Ethereum (ETH) will participate in the final phase of the current rally, potentially reaching between $5,000 and $7,000. However, he expects it to undergo its own correction once the broader market trend reverses.
He likens Solana's (SOL) current trajectory to Ethereum's behavior in earlier cycles, describing it as a rapidly appreciating layer-one network propelled by momentum. This upward trend, he predicts, could continue into 2025 before experiencing a cooling-off period. Cowen stated, "Solana feels like Ethereum in 2017 – explosive now, but due for a reset later."
Macro Forces Still in Control
Beyond the internal dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, Cowen emphasized the continued influence of Federal Reserve policy on market movements. With current interest rates high and liquidity tightening, he sees limited potential for speculative assets to sustain parabolic growth.
However, a shift in the Fed's stance, potentially occurring after 2026, could lead to increased capital inflows into the market. Cowen noted that "monetary easing tends to restart the engine," but until such a shift occurs, markets will need to absorb their recent excesses.
Long-Term Vision Still Bullish
While Cowen expresses caution regarding the market's prospects in 2026, he maintains a positive long-term outlook for Bitcoin. He projects that Bitcoin could potentially reach $1 million by 2041, assuming continued adoption and network effects align with historical trends.
Cowen stated, "Cycles repeat because human behavior repeats. What changes is the tempo—and learning that rhythm is the key to surviving the music."