The countdown to the Bittensor halving is officially underway, and the conversation around TAO is heating up fast. Analyst 0xJeff laid out a detailed view of how he expects the next few weeks to unfold, and if he’s right, TAO might be entering one of the most volatile phases of its entire lifecycle. With the halving set for December, traders are already preparing for the typical pre-halving excitement, followed by the possibility of a sharp “sell the news” period.
Before diving into the charts, it’s clear that the halving isn’t just another calendar event. Bittensor’s entire ecosystem revolves around emissions, subnet incentives, and compute economics, which means cutting rewards in half has deeper chain-wide consequences than a typical Layer-1 halving. That’s exactly why speculation is picking up. People aren’t just wondering if TAO will pump; they’re trying to understand how the entire DeAI ecosystem will react.
What the Analyst Expects From the Halving
According to 0xJeff, TAO may follow a familiar pattern that we’ve seen with Bitcoin and other proof-of-work assets. His outlook breaks into a few phases.
He expects a strong TAO rally roughly one to two weeks before the halving as traders position themselves ahead of the supply shock. This isn’t surprising; TAO is one of the only assets in crypto with real proof-of-work emissions and a clear technical schedule, so momentum tends to build as the date approaches. He also noted that the timing may line up with improving macro sentiment, especially if majors begin stabilizing or turning upward.
Then comes the risky part. He believes “sell the news” behavior could hit TAO right before the halving or within the first week after. Historically, the market tends to price in halvings early, and many traders take profits into the event itself. That puts TAO at risk of sharp volatility the moment excitement peaks.
The more complex dynamics will happen inside the subnet economy. Miners and operators need incentives to remain profitable, but cutting emissions in half means their native subnet tokens need to increase in value to maintain the same compute rewards. Jeff expects about twenty percent of subnets to surge as liquidity concentrates into stronger performers, while weaker networks could face heavy pressure, possibly even deregistration if their tokens cannot sustain incentive levels. This creates a Pareto-style split that could make the post-halving environment extremely competitive.
Overall, his take is that the halving will be exciting but chaotic, and TAO may experience both a strong rally and a sharp correction before finding its new equilibrium.
Watch below our full video about how TAO exactly works:
TAO Price Analysis: What the Chart Is Showing Right Now
The TAO chart you provided gives a lot of important clues. Price is currently sitting around the $378 range, trading sideways after the recent spike toward the mid-$500s. The first thing that stands out is how cleanly TAO is reacting to the 200-day moving average. It dipped below it for several months, but the recent rally pushed TAO back above the line, suggesting a shift in long-term strength.
However, the chart also shows a broad downtrend ever since the early summer highs, and TAO hasn’t escaped that structure yet. The big spike toward $520 created a sharp wick, showing that sellers stepped in aggressively at higher levels. The failure to hold above $400 afterward also tells us that buyers aren’t fully confident yet.
Support currently sits in the $350–$365 area. TAO has tested this zone multiple times, and each time, price bounced. If the halving narrative picks up momentum, this region may act as the base for a pre-halving rally. But if TAO slips below it, a retest of $320 becomes possible. That’s where the structure looks more fragile.
On the resistance side, the key zone remains the $450–$500 region where TAO repeatedly faced rejection. This is the level price needs to reclaim for momentum to turn fully bullish into the halving window. A clean break above that zone could open a path back toward the $530–$560 levels – especially if speculation begins building rapidly.
The RSI around mid-47 suggests TAO isn’t overheated, and it isn’t oversold either. This is typical of a consolidation phase before a larger move. With halvings, these sideways periods often lead to expansion once traders start positioning.
Where TAO Price Could Go Next
Over the next few days, the setup appears straightforward. If the halving narrative triggers front-running behavior, TAO could push back toward the $430–$450 range quickly. The key test will be whether price can break above that heavy resistance zone that stopped every rally this year. A bullish breakout would shift market sentiment dramatically and put the $500s back in play.
But the other scenario can’t be ignored. If TAO continues drifting and breaks below its local support around $350, the pre-halving excitement may not be enough to hold it up. A move toward $320 or even lower becomes more likely, especially if Bitcoin or the broader market turns red.
Either way, volatility is almost guaranteed as the halving approaches. TAO is sitting right in the middle of the accumulation zone where traders usually build positions before explosive moves.