There's been talk recently that Bitcoin's classic four-year halving cycle is over. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has claimed that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is over, and that the cycle is now driven by global liquidity.
While the number of analysts who think like Hayes continues to increase, experienced analyst Peter Brandt, who stands out with his 50 years of experience, said that the four-year cycle is still continuing in Bitcoin.
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On this point, Brandt told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin's current cycle follows a clear mathematical pattern. Accordingly, the time it takes for Bitcoin to reach its bottom before the halving is the same as the time it takes for it to reach its peak after the halving.
Accordingly, Bitcoin reached its cycle low on November 9, 2022, 533 days before the halving on April 20, 2024.
According to Brandt, BTC should also reach its peak 533 days after the halving. According to this calculation, the 533-day mark refers to last Sunday.
In this context, Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin broke a new record high on Monday, rising above $126,100, a day after the predicted cycle peak.
However, Brandt, opening a parenthesis here, argued that Bitcoin could achieve significant gains if it breaks this cycle and achieves a new ATH. The veteran figure pointed to $150,000 and $185,000 for BTC.
“Sooner or later, cycles change. However, betting against a cyclical trend with a perfect three-out-of-three record in Bitcoin shouldn't be done recklessly.
Trends that violate the existing cyclical or seasonal structure of markets are often the most dramatic.
At this point, if BTC breaks this classic cyclical trend and reaches a new ATH, it could reach between $150,000 and $185,000.
In this case, I think the chance is 50-50.”
*This is not investment advice.