Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sudden drop of over 7% the previous day, falling below the $100,000 level for the first time since June.
This decline represents a drop of more than 20% from the peak recorded just a month ago, and predictions of further declines are growing in the market.
Market Analysis and Expert Predictions
According to Bloomberg, experts predict that unlike the sudden crash last October, this decline will not be a one-time event and could fall below $90,000 or even down to $80,000.
At this point, options traders are the first to expect further declines. According to CoinGlass, approximately $2 billion worth of crypto positions have been liquidated in the last 24 hours.
While this figure is quite low compared to the $19 billion forced liquidation that occurred during the October crash last month, Bitcoin futures open interest remains low.
Options traders are also revealing that they expect further declines through their $80,000 put options.
Long-Term Investor Behavior and Potential Downside
10x Research founder Markus Thielen said that the recent decline in Bitcoin is different from the sudden drop experienced on October 11. He noted that forced sales were effective in the October crash, but sales from long-term investors were effective in the recent decline.
Stating that the market has become increasingly unstable due to the selling of long-term investors, Thielen said that the total assets of those holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins have decreased sharply.
Noting that whales are selling but not buying at all, Thielen warned that this decline could continue until next spring.
“During the 2021-2022 bear market, large quantities of over 1 million Bitcoin were sold over the course of about a year, and a sell-off on this scale could be repeated.
A catastrophic collapse is not expected, but there appears to be room for further declines.
Given the potential downside, I predict Bitcoin could fall to $85,000.”