Bitcoin traders are closely watching today's Federal Reserve announcement. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to implement a 0.25% interest rate cut, which would adjust the target range to 3.5%–3.75%. Historically, rate cuts tend to boost risk assets, including Bitcoin; however, the market is prone to significant fluctuations on FOMC announcement days.
Volatility Expected Around the Announcement
This week is a typical FOMC week, and traders often caution that rallies preceding the announcement can prove to be deceptive. While current market strength may appear genuine, the timing of entry into risk assets carries a high degree of uncertainty. Rapid price increases followed by abrupt reversals are frequently observed whenever the Federal Reserve provides forward guidance.
Bitcoin Rebounds From Extreme Fear
Earlier in the week, the cryptocurrency fear index registered a reading of 10, indicating extreme fear within the market. Following this, Bitcoin experienced a rebound from the $86,700 level and subsequently climbed back towards $92,300. The current price action suggests the formation of a higher support base, which is providing bulls with some momentum as the announcement approaches.
Analysts See Break Toward $103,000 If Resistance Breaks
One analyst has observed that Bitcoin is currently pressuring an important resistance level situated near $94,200. This analyst anticipates a clear breakout above this resistance, followed by a retest of the support level. Such a scenario, according to the analysis, could pave the way for Bitcoin to advance towards the $103,000 mark.
Strong Divergence May Push Bitcoin Toward $100K
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has highlighted that Bitcoin is showing a lag in performance compared to the Nasdaq, despite their typical correlation. He noted that tech stocks and other high-beta assets have already recovered from recent market downturns, a recovery that Bitcoin has not yet mirrored.
Van de Poppe suggests that this discrepancy represents a mispricing in the market and could lead to an upward movement in Bitcoin's price. Furthermore, he argued that the recent rapid decline from $115,000 to $80,000 occurred too swiftly, and that a broader appetite for risk-on assets is beginning to re-emerge.
Short-Term Target: $94K Break. Medium-Term Target: $110K–$115K
If the FOMC proceeds with a rate cut and indicates further easing measures in its forward guidance, Bitcoin could potentially retest the $94,000 level. A successful break above this resistance could then propel the price towards the $100,000–$103,000 region.
Looking ahead over the coming weeks, experts anticipate that Bitcoin will likely climb back into the $110,000–$115,000 range, effectively reversing the recent correction entirely.