Hungary and Portugal Impose Access Restrictions on Polymarket
Hungarian and Portuguese authorities have imposed access restrictions on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, signaling an escalation of regulatory pressure across Europe. Hungary's gambling supervisory body has blocked the platform's primary domain and associated subdomains, citing the illegal organization of gaming activities.
This temporary restriction is effective pending the completion of a regulatory review, according to an official notice issued on Friday. Hungarian users have reported experiencing access denial, with their IP addresses now triggering warning messages from the national gambling authority.
In Portugal, the Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service has ordered the cessation of operations within the country. However, the platform's availability persisted on Monday as enforcement procedures were still underway. Local broadcaster Rádio Renascença reported that the agency determined Polymarket lacks the required licensing and operates in violation of national prohibitions on political betting.
Concerns Over Election Betting and Regulatory Findings
Approximately 4 million euros in wagers were placed on Portuguese presidential election markets in the hours leading up to the announcement of the results, raising concerns about potential information leaks. According to regulatory findings, the total trading volume for the presidential market exceeded 110 million euros.
Portuguese authorities issued a directive for a 48-hour operational halt after concluding that the platform was operating without proper authorization. Officials stated that they supervise only licensed operators and cannot guarantee fund recovery for local users in the event of a platform block.
Broader European Regulatory Trend Against Polymarket
These developments follow Ukraine's decision last week to classify Polymarket's activities as unlicensed gambling under its national legislation. France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore, and Switzerland have also implemented similar restrictions, citing violations of gambling laws.
French gaming authorities announced their intention to block the platform in November 2024 due to non-compliance with national gambling laws. Swiss regulators categorized Polymarket as unlicensed gambling in the same month, ordering access restrictions through telecommunications providers.
Polish authorities added the platform to their prohibited gambling registries on January 8, 2025. Singapore implemented access blocking days afterward as part of a broader enforcement effort against unlicensed platforms, while Belgian regulators took comparable action on January 30, 2025.
Polymarket's Operations and Market Characterization
Polymarket currently employs geographic blocking across 33 countries, according to disclosures on its website. The platform facilitates contract trading tied to real-world event outcomes, with pricing determined by participant activity rather than traditional bookmaker odds.
Advocates for the platform argue that its structure more closely resembles financial markets than conventional gambling. However, multiple jurisdictions have rejected this characterization, treating its operations as unauthorized gaming rather than forecasting tools.
Scrutiny Over High-Stakes Bets and Legislative Action
The Hungarian regulatory action follows intensified scrutiny of wagers related to Venezuelan events that generated substantial profits. A platform account wagered on the removal of the Venezuelan president hours before U.S. military action, resulting in approximately $400,000 in returns and prompting questions about insider trading.
American lawmakers have introduced legislation to restrict government officials' participation in political prediction markets. Tennessee has initiated state-level enforcement action against Polymarket operations this month, while competitor Kalshi secured temporary judicial relief against Tennessee's sports contract restrictions.
Trading on prediction markets reached a record volume of $701.7 million on January 12, with Kalshi accounting for roughly two-thirds of that activity. Polymarket has not yet provided comment regarding these latest regulatory developments.