Market Overview
Hyperliquid's HYPE price is currently trading near $32, showing signs of a failed breakout. The market appears to be skewed towards deeper downside risks, influenced by significant leverage and weak spot trading volume. HYPE is trading around $32, marking a decrease of over 7% in the last 24 hours and 11% weekly, significantly below its peak of $59.
Shrinking spot volume and substantial derivatives open interest indicate a fragile market driven by leverage. Technical indicators suggest a pattern of lower highs, fading momentum, and nearby support levels in the low-$30s and high-$20s that are currently at risk.
The price of HYPE is currently situated in the mid-$30s. This price action is influenced by supply from a recent token unlock and continuous purchases from the project's assistance fund. Traders are focusing on whether the $33–$35 area will hold as support or if a breakdown in this zone could lead to a move towards the high-$20s in the upcoming sessions.
Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics
Spot trades on major platforms are concentrated in the low- to mid-$30s, giving HYPE a fully diluted valuation in the billions of dollars on hundreds of millions of dollars in daily volume. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stuck in the high-40s, and short-term moving averages are pressing down on the price. This suggests an indecisive market where neither buyers nor sellers have clear control, despite claims of bullish sentiment.
The market structure continues to lean against a clean upside breakout. A recent unlock event introduced a significant amount of supply into circulation. Trading activity is diminishing rather than expanding, and the price chart has been grinding within the same channel for months.
Impact of Token Unlock and Fund Activity
Under the surface, market flows appear unbalanced. Approximately 9.9 million HYPE tokens, representing about 2.6% of the circulating supply, became available to insiders and contributors following a single cliff event around November 29. Hyperliquid's Assistance Fund has invested over $600 million in buybacks this year and typically absorbs a few million dollars worth of tokens daily. However, this steady demand appears modest in comparison to the one-off release of this magnitude, potentially leaving the market vulnerable if any of that newly available supply enters the market aggressively.
Derivatives markets reflect a similar trend. Spot and futures volumes have decreased by approximately one-third from recent peaks, and open interest has eased slightly. This combination of factors can often lead to sudden price drops if momentum shifts.
Social Media Sentiment Analysis
Discussions on platforms like X reveal a clear division in sentiment. One group believes HYPE is experiencing a slow beta phase, lagging behind the broader market and influencing the index rather than breaking down independently. Another perspective suggests that the recent underperformance is part of a larger trend towards reduced risk appetite in major cryptocurrencies and high-beta assets. A more vocal segment claims that the Assistance Fund is actively buying tokens while HYPE trades as if it were distressed, arguing that the market has lost perspective and that current price levels represent a temporary disconnect rather than a fair market valuation.
Chart Analysis and Future Outlook
The price chart currently does not indicate a clear direction. HYPE continues to trade lower within a descending channel that has capped rallies since late summer. The $33–$35 band serves as a pivot point where both bullish and bearish forces are testing each other. A decisive daily close below this zone would likely bring the $28–$30 area into focus as a potential liquidity pocket and stop cluster. Conversely, a clean reclaim and sustained hold of the $36–$37 "distribution" area would suggest that sellers are running out of inventory and could open up space towards $40 and above by year-end. However, this scenario depends on the return of stronger market flows, healthier funding rates, and firmer open interest.
Based on current probabilities, the near-term outlook slightly favors the downside. The overhang of fresh supply and softer speculative participation make a retest of the high-$20s the base case scenario. A less probable outcome involves HYPE squeezing back above $37, contingent on macroeconomic conditions stabilizing and the Assistance Fund's buying pressure being sufficient to absorb the remaining unlocked supply.