Altcoin markets entered January 2026 on a mixed footing, with early optimism quickly giving way to hesitation as traders reassessed risk following Bitcoin’s modest start to the year. While some large-cap altcoins attempted short-term rebounds, broader market participation has remained thin, limiting follow-through. Internet Computer (ICP) reflects this wider uncertainty, showing signs of short-term recovery attempts but still trading within a larger bearish structure.
On the daily ICP/USDT chart, price action since the start of 2026 has been defined by a gradual rebound from late-December lows, followed by renewed selling pressure near key resistance. After bottoming just below the $2.90 region late last year, ICP pushed higher in early January, briefly reclaiming the $4.50 area before facing rejection.
From a trend perspective, ICP remains below its major moving averages. The 200-day simple moving average sits near $4.45, while the 200-day exponential moving average is slightly lower around $4.39. These long-term indicators continue to slope downward, reinforcing the idea that the broader trend is still bearish despite recent attempts at stabilization. The failure to establish daily closes above this cluster of resistance has capped upside momentum so far.
Shorter-term indicators tell a more nuanced story. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs, currently around $3.55 and $3.84 respectively, have started to curl upward after weeks of decline. This reflects improving short-term momentum and suggests buyers are becoming more active near the $3.80–$4.00 zone. However, ICP is still struggling to hold above the psychological $4.00 level, which now acts as a near-term pivot.
Bullish Scenario
For a bullish continuation to take shape, ICP would need to reclaim and hold above the $4.40–$4.50 resistance band, where the 200-day averages converge. A sustained daily close above this zone would signal a shift in market structure and could open the door for a move toward $5.20, followed by the broader $5.80–$6.00 supply area that capped price throughout the second half of 2025. Such a move would likely require improved sentiment across the wider altcoin market, along with increased volume confirming demand.
In this scenario, the recent higher lows formed since early January would be validated, positioning ICP for a potential medium-term trend reversal rather than just a relief rally.
Bearish Scenario
On the downside, repeated rejection below the 200-day averages keeps downside risks firmly in play. A failure to defend the $3.90–$4.00 area could see ICP slide back toward the 20-day EMA near $3.55. Below that, the $3.40–$3.50 zone remains critical support, having acted as a base during the late-December sell-off.
A decisive breakdown below this region would invalidate the current recovery structure and expose ICP to deeper losses toward $3.00, where historical demand previously emerged.
Outlook
Overall, ICP’s early-2026 performance mirrors the broader altcoin market: tentative recovery attempts overshadowed by unresolved bearish pressure. Until price can reclaim long-term resistance with conviction, rallies are likely to face selling interest.
For now, ICP price movement remains uncertain, with both bulls and bears awaiting clearer direction from the market.