Year-End Expectations for Bitcoin Are Declining
While expectations of a new upward wave in Bitcoin increased after the great crash in October, November also started with declines.
Following October, declines continued in November, historically known as the month of rise, with Bitcoin falling below the critical level of $100,000.
While this decline also dampened bullish expectations, some analysts said that Bitcoin would have a hard time reaching $125,000 by the end of 2025.
At this point, ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan stated that Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level in the last four months and that long-term investors are selling, strengthening the selling pressure in the market.
Morgan said that for BTC to rise, it needs to break its high correlation with US President Donald Trump's statements, including tariffs, as this will be difficult for BTC to rise.
“It will be difficult for the Bitcoin price to surpass $125,000 by the end of the year.
Unless Bitcoin breaks its high correlation with Trump's policy statements, it will not be easy for it to experience a new bull market.
$116,000 Needs to Be Earned for a Potential Rally
Bitfinex analysts also noted that Bitcoin is facing a difficult time. They pointed to a price of $116,000, indicating continued selling pressure from long-term investors.
At this point, analysts stated that if Bitcoin fails to surpass $116,000, further declines are possible.
“The continued selling by long-term investors is creating structural pressure. If the Bitcoin price cannot quickly break above $116,000 amidst declining demand, the risk of further declines will increase.
Because the upward momentum is gradually weakening, and the longer the stagnation phase lasts, the weaker investor confidence becomes, which increases the risk of a downturn.
Future Outlook: Could Bitcoin's Bear Market Begin in 2026?
While there is no clear opinion on how Bitcoin will perform in 2026, analysts are divided on the matter.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan predicted that 2026 will be a “bullish year” for Bitcoin.
In contrast, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth said that a bear market similar to previous mid-season periods is likely to occur in 2026.