Bitcoin may be stabilizing after weeks of heavy selling, with several traders arguing that conditions are in place for a relief move toward the $100,000–$110,000 area. In a recent video, trader Mister Crypto said Bitcoin’s short-term structure has started to settle following what he described as “capitulation” across the market. He added that indicators tied to trader activity show large players opening new long positions even as sentiment sat in “extreme fear,” a mix he said has often preceded rebounds.
One of the main signals he pointed to is the weekly Relative Strength Index approaching 30, a level that has aligned with short-term lows in past cycles. “We have bottomed out for Bitcoin right here. We have been reaching the 30 level. Boom,” he said. The trader stopped short of calling this the start of a new uptrend but said setups like this often lead to temporary reversals.
Another marker drawing attention is Bitcoin’s distance from the 50-week moving average, currently sitting near $102,000. According to Mister Crypto, Bitcoin has repeatedly moved back toward that level after dipping under it in previous cycles, making the zone a near-term reference point if momentum improves.
Investor Takeaway
Are Macro Expectations Adding Fuel to the Rebound Scenario?
Mister Crypto said wider market expectations are helping the short-term setup. Traders are watching for a potential end to quantitative tightening along with speculation about another policy rate cut. Both would loosen financial conditions, something that tends to help risk assets when markets have already retreated sharply. Even so, the analyst kept a guarded long-range outlook, saying broader market action still resembles a bearish backdrop. Under his view, any bounce toward six figures could be temporary if the larger trend fails to turn.
Does Sentiment Support a Short-Term Lift?
The sentiment backdrop has started to shift. After spending 18 consecutive days in “Extreme Fear,” the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 28 on Saturday — its first “Fear” print since Nov. 10. Traders track the index as a rough gauge of crowd behavior, and long stretches near the bottom have often lined up with exhaustion phases.
On Nov. 15, analyst Matthew Hyland noted that the gauge sat at the “most extreme fear level” of the entire cycle. Days later, analyst Crypto Seth commented, “Extreme Fear is an understatement.” Then, trader Nicola Duke said that every time extreme fear has appeared on the index, it has marked a “local bottom” for Bitcoin.
Other datasets support the sentiment shift. Analytics firm Santiment said Bitcoin was showing “generally bullish sentiment” as prices approached $92,000 earlier this week, citing its own social-media sentiment indicator.
Investor Takeaway
Is the Market Still in Risk-Off Mode?
Despite the early signs of improvement, risk appetite across crypto remains muted. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index sits at 22 out of 100, a level firmly in “Bitcoin Season.” That reading suggests traders are still cautious and sticking to the largest asset rather than rotating into smaller tokens.
Meanwhile, Bitwise Europe’s head of research, André Dragosch, said that Bitcoin could have major upside because its current price fails to capture improving macro expectations. “The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch said, referring to the violent sell-off and recovery in March 2020. His view highlights a growing divide between on-chain indicators and macro headlines. Some traders argue that recession worries and falling expectations for global growth are already baked into current prices. Others say Bitcoin’s longer-term direction will depend on how central banks handle the next stage of policy adjustments.
What Comes Next?
The near-term outlook hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold recent support levels while fear continues to ease. A move toward the 50-week moving average near $102,000 would match patterns seen in earlier cycles, though traders remain split on how long any bounce might last.
For now, Bitcoin’s backdrop reflects a mix of washed-out sentiment, improving positioning and technical indicators nearing levels that previously aligned with local bottoms. Whether that leads to a durable trend or just a short-lived rally will become clearer if macro expectations shift again or if buyers return with more conviction.