Coinbase stock experienced fluctuations today, December 4, as its recent recovery showed signs of waning amidst rising concerns about competition within the United States market.
COIN was trading at $186, representing a 1.3% decrease from its closing price on Wednesday. The stock remains approximately 40% below its highest point reached in July of this year.
A significant risk for Coinbase stems from the increasing number of American companies launching their own cryptocurrency trading services, a development that is poised to intensify market competition.
SoFi, a company serving over 12 million customers, recently relaunched its crypto services. This enhancement allows its clientele to consolidate their trading activities within a single platform.
Furthermore, Charles Schwab, a financial institution boasting over 38 million active brokerage accounts and managing nearly $12 trillion in assets, is set to commence its crypto trading services in January. Initially, these services will focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with plans to expand to other digital assets over time.
We knew this was coming, big q tho: What is the fee? Schwab has free ETF and stock trading. If crypto also free, look out $COIN. Hell, anything under 50bps is big threat to crypto exchanges IMO. On flip, ETFs are already free to trade and have 1-2bp spread so pretty much less...
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 3, 2025
In addition to these developments, other cryptocurrency firms such as OKX and Binance are actively working towards reintroducing their services in the US. This move occurs at a time when the industry is observing encouraging regulatory progress under Donald Trump's administration.
These competitive pressures are emerging as analysts anticipate a slowdown in Coinbase's growth trajectory. The average estimate among analysts suggests that the company's fourth-quarter revenue will be $1.96 billion, a decline of 13.5% compared to the previous year. Projections for the first quarter indicate revenue of $2.03 billion, a slight decrease of 0.31% from the same period last year.
More critically, analysts foresee a drop in Coinbase's earnings per share to $8.08 this year, down from $9.49 in 2024, with further decline to $6.85 projected for 2026. The company's profitability could be further impacted if it is compelled to reduce its fees to remain competitive.
Coinbase Stock Price Technical Analysis
The daily timeframe chart analysis reveals that the COIN stock price has experienced a pullback from its October high of $400, currently trading at $277.
Coinbase stock remains below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. It has also fallen below the significant support level at $290, which represented its lowest swings in August and September of this year.
The stock is also showing signs of forming a death cross pattern, as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages is narrowing. A death cross is widely recognized as a bearish reversal indicator.
Current indicators suggest that the stock may retest the key resistance level at $290. A successful retest of this level would confirm a break-and-retest pattern, often signaling a continuation of the existing trend. If this pattern materializes, there is a notable risk that the COIN stock price could decline further to the $200 mark.