Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently trading around $0.136, with a daily trading volume of $1.3 billion. The price has experienced a slight decrease of nearly 1% in the last 24 hours and a 9% drop over the past week. Despite this recent weakness, technical indicators suggest a potential shift in its price direction.
Dogecoin Enters Wyckoff Spring Phase
Analyst Trader Tardigrade has identified Dogecoin as being in Phase C of the Wyckoff Accumulation model, specifically the "Spring" phase. This stage is characterized by a final downward push below established support levels, often preceding a reversal. Dogecoin recently reached a new low within the $0.13–$0.14 range, aligning with the expectations for this phase of the model.
✍ Wyckoff Accumulation – Phase C – Spring ✍ pic.twitter.com/SRez4cHN1a
The primary objective of this downward movement is to test support levels and shake out short-term traders. If the current technical setup proves valid, Dogecoin may then transition into Phase D, initiating an upward movement within its trading range.
Furthermore, the same analyst highlighted a bullish crossover forming on the 3-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. This specific signal has occurred twice earlier this year, in April and July, and on both occasions, it was followed by an increase in Dogecoin's price. The MACD line is now moving above the signal line, indicating a potential third instance of this bullish pattern.
Each prior MACD crossover has resulted in a discernible price reaction. Should history repeat itself, this could signal increased buying interest. The MACD is a widely used tool for monitoring shifts in short-to-mid-term momentum.
Market Cycle Analysis Supports Accumulation View
A separate long-term chart analysis by analyst Bark suggests that Dogecoin is currently in its third major market cycle. Historically, each of these cycles has comprised a correction phase, followed by a period of accumulation, and then a subsequent breakout. The current trading range, established between $0.05 and $0.20, has remained consistent since 2022.
Based on the performance of previous cycles, this chart projects a potential price target of $5 by the year 2026. It is important to note that this projection is contingent on historical patterns and may be influenced by prevailing market conditions.
“If history repeats itself, the jump will be massive,” Bark stated.
On-Chain Data and ETF Activity Present Mixed Signals
Analysis of wallet data reveals a divergence in on-chain activity. Reports indicate that holders with balances between 10 million and 100 million DOGE have collectively reduced their holdings by approximately 7 billion coins in recent weeks. This decrease in significant whale activity has shifted the market's focus toward technical trading setups.
In the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, newly launched Dogecoin funds in the United States experienced a subdued debut, with notably low trading volumes. Despite this, Dogecoin demonstrated a degree of resilience, recovering from intraday lows of $0.132 as late-session buying activity counteracted earlier declines.