Backed by its status as a benchmark in the crypto market, bitcoin faces a crucial question: can it reconnect with the euphoria of last January, when it broke $109,000 for the first time? Between macroeconomic uncertainties and structural advances, BTC’s trajectory triggers as many expectations as doubts. Is the bull cycle already behind us or just on pause?
In Brief
- •Bitcoin is drawing attention again as January approaches, with the backdrop of its historical record of $109,000 reached in early 2025.
- •21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder believes such a scenario is unlikely in 2026, due to an unfavorable macroeconomic environment.
- •Several recent events, including a 10% drop and a $19 billion liquidation, have weakened market sentiment.
- •Despite this, some analysts remain optimistic in the medium term, betting on the growth of crypto ETFs, state interest, and Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven.
A Repeat of January? Unlikely According to 21Shares
For Ophelia Snyder, co-founder of crypto investment product company 21Shares, investors should exercise caution regarding hopes for a new historic bitcoin high as early as January 2026.
Indeed, she states: "it is unlikely that the factors causing the current volatility will resolve in the short term". She clarifies that "January’s performance will heavily depend on the overall market sentiment".
In clear terms, BTC would be more dependent on macroeconomic dynamics than on its own fundamentals. Snyder emphasizes that the recent drop is not related to crypto-specific factors but reflects a generalized risk aversion in global financial markets.
Snyder’s analysis is based on several important facts that affected its trajectory:
- •Bitcoin reached a peak of over $126,000 in early October before beginning a marked pullback phase.
- •A massive $19 billion liquidation destabilized the crypto market on October 10, triggering a broad downward movement.
- •Market sentiment remains sluggish, limiting the likelihood of significant capital inflows, including via Bitcoin ETFs traditionally favored at the start of the year.
- •Finally, portfolio repositioning in January, although typical, may this time collide with a global uncertainty context, reducing its impact on prices.
Within this framework, Snyder tempers expectations about an explosive rebound early next year, estimating that current conditions do not lend themselves to a large-scale bull restart in the short term.
Structural Levers for a Long-Term Rebound?
Despite this cautious stance, Ophelia Snyder does not rule out a bullish scenario in the medium to long term, supported by fundamental elements.
"I feel more optimistic because I believe this recent correction is a response to the general climate of risk aversion, rather than internal problems within the crypto industry," she confides.
For her, several catalysts could foster positive momentum in the future, such as the expansion of the crypto ETF offerings on major platforms, or the rise of bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven asset to gold. Added to this is the growing interest of some states in cryptos, which could contribute to increased institutional adoption.
A dissenting voice supports the idea of a possible rapid return to the highs. Tom Lee, president of BitMine, believes bitcoin will reach a new historic high before the end of January 2026.
Although isolated, this prediction is based on historical observation. Since 2013, bitcoin has recorded an average +3.81% performance during January, according to CoinGlass data. This might be enough to trigger a technical rebound, even if its scale remains uncertain in an still fragile economic context.
The bitcoin price remains suspended in a fragile balance between hopes for institutional adoption and economic uncertainties. Without a clear catalyst, the prospect of a new high seems uncertain despite a progressing market infrastructure.