JPMorgan analysts predict that Bitcoin could surge to $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. This significant forecast is based on the normalization of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives following a recent market correction and perpetual futures liquidation.
These projections underscore the complex market dynamics that influence Bitcoin's valuation, potentially affecting investor strategies and overall market sentiment within the cryptocurrency's evolving landscape.
The analysis, spearheaded by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director of Global Markets Strategy at JPMorgan, highlights Bitcoin's favorable comparison to gold on a risk-adjusted basis. This perspective was further emphasized by Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg, who noted JPMorgan's view that Bitcoin remains historically undervalued when compared to gold.
Normalization after a major deleveraging event and a favorable comparison to gold on a risk-adjusted basis suggests significant potential upside for Bitcoin.
This prediction follows a substantial reduction in leverage within Bitcoin markets, which was initially precipitated by a perpetual futures liquidation. The subsequent stabilization and modest outflows from Bitcoin ETFs suggest a return of investor confidence, a notable contrast to the heavy inflows observed in October 2025.
The financial implications of these market movements are not limited to Bitcoin, as Ethereum has also experienced less severe impacts within its derivatives market. On-chain data indicates that the ratio of open interest in Bitcoin futures to its market capitalization has returned to normal levels, reinforcing the notion that leverage concerns are diminishing.
Market analysts suggest that the current market conditions bear resemblance to past cycles where similar risk-adjusted valuations relative to gold preceded significant rallies in Bitcoin's price. While a DeFi hack, particularly affecting Balancer, contributed to previous market stress, this issue has since subsided.
Although there have been no direct regulatory interventions, market analysts are primarily focusing on broader systemic trends rather than specific technological advancements or protocol developments. Long-term forecasts are largely dependent on macroeconomic factors, in the absence of substantial developments in DeFi governance or the altcoin sectors.