Kevin O’Leary expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting interest rates in December 2025, but he believes the outcome will have little to no impact on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
With BTC trading around $92,300, O’Leary argues the market has entered a period of stability and is unlikely to break meaningfully higher without a new catalyst.
O’Leary Doubts The Fed Will Cut Rates This Month
O’Leary points to persistent inflation as the core reason the Fed may delay easing. Inflation climbed back to 3% in September, a level he says remains too elevated for policymakers to confidently shift toward rate cuts.
He also emphasizes the Fed’s dual mandate:
- •Keep inflation under control
- •Maintain full employment
According to O’Leary, the central bank’s priorities leave little room for a premature cut, and he is not structuring his investment strategy around the expectation of a December shift.
Market Still Expects A Cut But O’Leary Doesn’t Agree
Despite his skepticism, traders remain heavily positioned for a rate cut. The latest readings from the CME FedWatch Tool show an 89.2% probability of a December reduction, reflecting broad anticipation that the Fed will loosen policy before year-end.
Crypto markets typically view rate cuts as bullish, as declining yields tend to pull capital away from bonds and into risk assets, including Bitcoin. But O’Leary argues this dynamic is no longer as strong as in previous cycles.
Bitcoin May Be Maturing Beyond Macro Shockwaves
O’Leary believes Bitcoin is settling into a more stable trading pattern, noting that he expects BTC to fluctuate within a 5% range of its current level around $91,000. In his view, the asset has reached a structural equilibrium, at least in the short term, creating a window where macro developments produce less pronounced price reactions.
He sees no immediate upside catalyst, and describes Bitcoin’s behavior as increasingly aligned with a maturing market, one less prone to dramatic swings tied to Federal Reserve decisions.
A More Stable Bitcoin Heading Into 2026
As investors weigh the probability of a December cut, O’Leary’s stance highlights a growing divide between traders betting on short-term macro triggers and those who believe Bitcoin is shifting into a steadier phase. For now, he expects BTC to remain anchored near its current level regardless of the Fed’s next move.