According to prediction market Polymarket, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh is now the most likely candidate to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. He currently holds a 62% implied probability of being nominated, signaling a sharp rise in market confidence around his candidacy.
Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform known for its real-time predictive data, reflects growing speculation that the U.S. government could soon shift direction in its approach to monetary policy.
Who Is Kevin Warsh?
Kevin Warsh served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. He is known for his hawkish stance on inflation and critical views of the Fed’s quantitative easing policies. Warsh’s background in both government and Wall Street makes him a unique contender for the role, especially at a time when economic uncertainty and inflation remain hot-button issues.
His appointment could indicate a move toward tighter monetary policy, which may impact interest rates, financial markets, and the broader economy.
UPDATE: According to Polymarket, Kevin Warsh leads the market to be nominated as the next Fed Chair, with a 62% implied probability. pic.twitter.com/gs51vufZ9d
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 20, 2026
What the Markets Are Saying
A 62% betting probability on Polymarket is significant and suggests that a large number of traders believe his nomination is imminent. While prediction markets aren’t official sources, they often serve as strong indicators of public and institutional sentiment.
If Warsh is appointed, we can expect a noticeable shift in how the Fed communicates and handles inflation, interest rates, and digital currency policy.