According to recent data, the market received a key macro signal this week after the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for November posted a 48.2 reading, missing expectations of 49. Numbers below 50 indicate that manufacturing activity continues to contract, and that the broader economy hasn’t yet entered an expansionary phase.
The ISM PMI is built from monthly data provided by more than 400 manufacturing companies, covering essential economic indicators such as new orders, production levels, inventory changes, hiring trends, and delivery speeds. When combined into one index:
- •Above 50 signals expansion
- •Below 50 signals slowdown
Today’s reading confirms that the U.S. economy isn’t accelerating yet, and that directly influences the timeline for a true altcoin season.
Why Altseasons Have Always Required a Strong ISM Reading
Historical charts reveal that altseasons are not born from weak macro conditions. They emerge when economic strength and liquidity expansion align with risk-asset appetite.
Looking at the previous two cycles:
- •2017 Altseason → ISM above 55
- •2021 Altseason → ISM above 55
Both parabolic altcoin phases happened only when manufacturing strength, hiring, and demand were booming. Expansion in the real economy historically correlates with higher crypto speculation, increased leverage, and surges in altcoin dominance.
The chart highlights this clearly, altseason peaks align with periods where the ISM index pushes decisively into expansion territory, not when it is contracting.
Why the 48.2 Reading Means We’re Still in “Waiting Mode”
Today’s data reinforces one message: Macro conditions aren’t supportive enough for a broad altcoin breakout yet.
With ISM still stuck below the 50 line, and far from the 55+ threshold associated with prior altseasons, the crypto market lacks the macro tailwind needed for a sustained rotation from Bitcoin into alts.
Instead, we are still in a “waiting for expansion” environment.
Is 2026 Setting Up for the Next Major Altseason?
Although ISM remains weak today, the macro setup for the next major cycle is starting to form. Several critical catalysts expected in 2026 could create the same environment that fueled past altseason explosions:
- •Rate cuts planned for 2026, easing financial pressure
- •Looser liquidity conditions across global markets
- •Potential policy shifts that support risk assets
- •Recovery in manufacturing and demand, which historically lifts ISM
- •Broader financial flows rotating back into tech & crypto
If ISM begins trending upward in the coming months, moving above 50 and toward the 55 expansion zone, that’s when early signals for altseason become meaningful.
The chart hints that 2026 could mirror 2017 and 2021, but only if economic activity follows the same path.
Conclusion
The latest ISM PMI report confirms the market is not yet in macro expansion mode, explaining why altcoins have not entered a true altseason. However, history strongly suggests that once ISM begins rising, especially toward the 55 level, the setup for a powerful altcoin cycle becomes far more likely.
For now, patience is still part of the process. The foundation for a 2026 altseason is forming, but economic acceleration must come first.