A significant crash for Bitcoin and broader crypto markets appears unlikely at this stage, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.
"We haven't hit euphoric levels in this cycle, therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation," Alden stated during a recent episode of the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast. She dismissed the idea that the four-year cycle remains intact, noting "the cycle could go on for longer than people can expect, because it's not driven by the halving, it's driven by broader macro and interest in the asset itself."
Market Sentiment and Contrasting Forecasts
The assessment mirrors comments from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who recently rejected the four-year-cycle theory and suggested the market is likely "in for a good few years." However, not everyone agrees that a major downturn is off the table.
Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph he expects a Bitcoin retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years. The contrasting forecasts highlight uncertainty among market participants about the cycle's trajectory.
Historical Market Behavior and Current Trends
Alden noted market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors imagine. "It's usually not as good as people expect and it's usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out," she stated. Bitcoin has traded in a downtrend since reaching new highs of $126,080 on Oct. 6, dropping to as low as $80,700 on Thursday before recovering slightly to $85,710.
Market sentiment has fallen as many traders expected year-end strength and potentially new highs. Some analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, previously called for a move toward $250,000. Bitcoin has declined 22.46% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Investor Expectations and Future Projections
Alden said investors need to stop treating bull cycles as guaranteed events. "People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market," she stated. "No one is owed a bull market."
She expects Bitcoin to reclaim the $100,000 level in 2026 and either set new highs that year or in 2027. The timeline suggests Alden views current volatility as part of an extended cycle rather than the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Her analysis emphasizes patience and realistic expectations as crypto markets navigate uncertain macroeconomic conditions and shifting institutional adoption patterns.