Market Expert: I Just Discovered What’s Really Going On With XRP

Something big is brewing beneath the surface of the XRP market — something most investors are missing. A key on-chain metric is flashing one of the strongest capitulation signals in XRP’s history, revealing that short-term holders are deep in the red. And while fear grips the market, data suggests this could be one of the most critical turning points yet.

The Hidden Signal Behind XRP’s Market Behavior

In a recent video shared on X, STEPH IS CRYPTO spotlighted the short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss ratio (STH-NUPL) — a crucial on-chain metric that measures whether recent XRP buyers are sitting on profits or losses. This ratio, which uses blockchain data to gauge sentiment, has now dipped to around -0.20, one of the lowest levels recorded in XRP’s price history.

According to Steph, this sharp decline signals “capitulation,” a stage where short-term investors sell their holdings in panic, locking in losses. Historically, this phase has often marked the exact bottom of market cycles — the moment when fear peaks and strong hands begin to quietly accumulate.

Historical Patterns: How Capitulation Precedes Major Rallies

Steph drew parallels between the current market structure and past XRP capitulation events. In October 2024, XRP traded near $0.50 when the STH-NUPL last plunged into deep negative territory. That downturn saw widespread selling and loss realization, yet within weeks, XRP skyrocketed to nearly $4, delivering massive gains to patient holders.

A similar pattern emerged in mid-2025, when XRP fell toward the $2 range. Again, short-term holders exited in panic, only for the price to rebound to around $3.50 shortly after. These moments of extreme pessimism have repeatedly preceded substantial rallies, reinforcing the metric’s reliability as a sentiment gauge.

Current Market Context: A Deeper Capitulation Than Before

What’s particularly striking this time, Steph noted, is that XRP’s current STH-NUPL reading is even lower than during previous market bottoms. This suggests that the level of fear and realized losses among short-term traders is unprecedented — a possible setup for another major reversal if historical behavior holds true.

The data implies that the market may be exhausting its selling momentum. As speculative hands exit, long-term holders and institutional participants could once again dominate supply, reducing selling pressure and setting the stage for recovery.

Investor Takeaway: Data Over Emotion

Steph emphasized one core message: “This is absolutely the worst time to exit crypto.” Emotional trading during capitulation phases often leads to regret when markets inevitably recover. The XRP ecosystem, bolstered by Ripple’s continued global partnerships and liquidity integrations, remains fundamentally robust even amid short-term volatility.

While no indicator can guarantee immediate gains, the on-chain evidence points to fear-driven selling rather than structural weakness. Historically, that’s when opportunities emerge — quietly, and only for those patient enough to see beyond the panic.

Final Thoughts

The latest data-backed insight from Steph offers a powerful reminder: market bottoms don’t feel bullish when they happen. As XRP’s short-term holders capitulate harder than ever before, the conditions appear eerily similar to every major rally that followed past panic phases.

If history rhymes, this could be the calm before XRP’s next explosive move.