Current Bitcoin Outlook
Bitcoin ($BTC) currently maintains a strongly bullish outlook. The cryptocurrency remains in a bullish phase as long as it does not experience a decisive break below the $102,000 mark. This assessment is supported by analysis of weekly, daily, and 4-hour charts, which clearly illustrate the current market dynamics.
Bitcoin appears poised for a potential upward movement. Across both lower timeframes (LTF) and higher timeframes (HTF), Bitcoin is trading within a volatile range, consistently respecting its support trendline and attempting to bounce back. Bitcoin has already recovered approximately 70% of its previous crash wick and is currently consolidating. It is important to note that after a significant market crash, an immediate subsequent crash is uncommon.
As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above $106,500 on both the daily and 4-hour charts, its bullish trajectory is expected to continue.
Should Bitcoin break below $106,500, it might see a decline towards the $103,000 level. However, this scenario is considered less probable due to the presence of a fair value gap (FVG), a weekly order block (OB), and significant liquidity situated above this level.
The immediate short-term target for Bitcoin is set at $116,000. A liquidity sweep around the $102,000 level is anticipated, potentially occurring around October 24, coinciding with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
Potential Bearish Scenarios
A bearish turn for Bitcoin would likely occur if it experiences a strong weekly or daily close below the $102,000 mark. Such a break could lead to a significant drop towards the $95,000 level, or potentially even to the $85,000–$88,000 range, as there is substantial liquidity and a fair value gap within that zone.
Despite this possibility, the probability of such a scenario unfolding at this time is considered very low, suggesting there is currently no immediate cause for panic.
Public and Market Sentiment Analysis
Observations over the past week indicate that approximately 90% of traders are anticipating a drop in Bitcoin to the $100,000–$95,000 range to initiate buying positions. However, the market often operates in ways that prevent easy profits for participants.
Consequently, Bitcoin may either consolidate and rebound from its current levels, or experience a brief dip towards $88,000 before initiating a recovery.
Following the recent market crash, a substantial number of retail traders have exited the market. This is a common pattern where the market aims to clear out retail participation before a major move. Bull markets are often characterized by slow rallies followed by sudden downturns, making consistent profits challenging. The market can surge rapidly, leaving many observers behind.
Therefore, maintaining a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy and making entries during price dips, rather than waiting for an idealized entry point, is generally advisable.
Upcoming News and Events Impact
October 24, 2025 — CPI Data: An increase of 0.2% in CPI could lead to fluctuations of 7–10% in altcoins and a 5% movement (up or down) in Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin is expected to rebound quickly from any downturn.
October 30, 2025 — Rate Cut Decision: A decrease in GDP might cause a sharp market fall. Conversely, an increase in GDP could strengthen the dollar, leading to a mild correction. Overall, the fourth quarter is projected to be strong for the broader market.
Influence of Political Factors
The market's behavior is currently deviating from historical patterns. When analyzing on higher timeframes (HTF), lower timeframe (LTF) setups become less reliable. Due to the actions and statements made by Donald Trump, the market has exhibited volatility in both bullish and bearish directions, leading to trapped traders.
Summary of Analysis
Bitcoin ($BTC) continues to exhibit a bullish trend. If a more significant drop occurs, it could potentially reach $103,000, especially following the CPI release. Otherwise, short-term targets are set at $116,000, with higher timeframe targets reaching $130,000.
However, a decisive break below $102,000 with a strong candle could signal a move towards the $85,000–$88,000 levels.
It is crucial to monitor market movements closely and identify strategic scalping opportunities.
Advice for Holders
For those currently holding assets, the recommendation is to maintain positions for the next two months. Bitcoin has the potential to surpass $120,000 this month, possibly reaching $130,000. While a rate cut is anticipated, there might be a final market shakeout before this occurs.
Therefore, it is advised to hold firm and remain confident.
Scalping Recommendations
For scalping strategies, focus on major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Chainlink (LINK). Altcoins may experience further volatility, underscoring the importance of using stop-losses and regularly booking profits.
Note: This analysis is based on a higher timeframe perspective and reflects personal opinions and observations. It is not guaranteed to be 100% accurate, as the market is currently heavily influenced by news. Therefore, positions should not be entered solely based on this update. Always conduct your own thorough analysis before making any trading decisions.