Matt Hougan is widely recognized as a leading figure whose insights are highly anticipated by the cryptocurrency community. His company is a major issuer of crypto ETFs, and the past month has been tumultuous with controversies involving AI bubbles, legal tariff disputes, and claims regarding Strategy’s potential delisting by MSCI. Despite the upheaval, Hougan remains optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies.
January 15 Crypto Market Crash Concerns
As the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, Matt Hougan provided a comprehensive assessment of the future of crypto with a focus on Strategy. Rumors about Strategy planning to sell its massive reserve of 650,000 BTC have unsettled short-term crypto investors. However, Hougan disagrees with these claims, emphasizing their inaccuracy.
In his latest market evaluation note to clients, Hougan argued that even if Strategy is removed from MSCI indices, such a move would not have the speculated impact. Last month, MSCI suggested that companies with substantial crypto investments might need special treatment distinct from stocks, potentially categorizing them as fund companies. If MSCI rules against them on January 15, it could trigger the withdrawal of billions in passive investments from Strategy.
JPMorgan has evaluated that such a decision would initially lead to a $2.8 billion outflow from Strategy shares. If treated as a fund rather than a stock, MSTR would automatically be removed from many equity portfolios. Hougan estimates a 75% probability of this scenario.
Resilience of Cryptocurrencies
Reflecting on past events, Hougan reminded investors of Strategy’s addition to the Nasdaq-100 last year, which necessitated $2.1 billion worth of MSTR demand, yet prices remained stable. He believes that the ongoing decline in Strategy’s stock since October 10 is an anticipation of the MSCI decision.
Nevertheless, persistent investor anxiety could spiral into a downturn. Hougan acknowledges the possibility that MSCI delisting might depress stock prices significantly below net asset value, potentially coercing Strategy to sell some BTC.
To counter these fears, the company has preemptively approached the SEC, detailing their strategy to maintain a USD reserve sufficient for at least twelve months of dividends, with plans to strengthen this reserve to cover 24 months or more.
Michael Saylor commented, addressing skeptics who doubt their resolve to pay dividends without selling Bitcoin. He emphasized the company’s dedication to paying dividends, even considering selling appreciated Bitcoin, while actively increasing their Bitcoin holdings each quarter.
Hougan reassures that Strategy’s dividend and interest obligations don’t pose a significant short-term financial threat, dismissing the anticipated major downturn on January 15. Furthermore, the company’s first major debt is due in February 2027, a relatively minor amount compared to its $60 billion reserves. Last year, the company announced weekly BTC purchases exceeding $1 billion.
In summary, MSTR isn’t in dire straits, and panic has largely been priced in. Therefore, the anticipated crypto downturn might not occur at all.