Crypto tokens are becoming increasingly efficient at capturing value due to evolving regulations, improved token models, and upgraded industry standards, factors that could trigger a major market rally in 2026, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
In a detailed analysis shared on X, Hougan warned that amid the noise of the current market pullback, investors are overlooking a significant trend: the rising ability of digital assets to capture and return value to token holders.
He specifically addressed what he calls widespread “bad analysis” of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, which manage crypto assets and often spark debate about whether their tokens should trade at a premium or discount to the market value of the assets they hold, known as “mNAV.”
Hougan explained that most tokens created in earlier regulatory eras relied on vague governance structures due to limitations on value capture. New regulatory clarity now allows digital assets to adopt stronger, more transparent economic models.
Evaluating Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)
To evaluate a DAT properly, Hougan suggested starting with a simple question: If the company had a fixed lifespan, what would it be worth?
He outlined three main reasons a DAT might trade at a discount: illiquidity, operating expenses, and risk. Investors would naturally demand a discount for receiving underlying assets at a future date, for covering company expenses, or for potential operational failures.
Conversely, Hougan said DATs could trade at a premium when they increase their crypto-per-share over time, something only a few firms successfully achieve.
Drivers of Increased Asset-Per-Share Value
He identified four drivers for increasing asset-per-share value:
- •Issuing debt to buy crypto
- •Lending crypto for yield
- •Using derivatives such as covered calls
- •Acquiring assets or companies at a discount
Future Market Outlook
Hougan believes that as the sector matures, larger DATs will outperform because scale makes these strategies easier to execute. While the past six months saw DATs rise and fall together, he expects clear differentiation ahead, with top performers trading at a premium and weaker firms falling behind.