Mizuho Reaffirms Outperform Rating for MSTR Stock
Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev has reiterated an Outperform rating and a $484 price target for MSTR Stock, following a detailed question-and-answer session with Andrew Kang, the Chief Financial Officer of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The firm's analysis indicates a positive outlook for the company's stock.
Strategy successfully raised $1.44 billion to bolster its U.S. dollar reserves. This capital infusion is intended to provide approximately 21 months of preferred dividend coverage without necessitating the sale of its Bitcoin holdings.
During the discussion with Dolev, CFO Andrew Kang outlined the company's strategy for expanding its reserves. He indicated a preference for maintaining a mNAV (market value of net assets) ratio exceeding 1 and signaled an intention to utilize perpetual preferred equity rather than issuing new convertible notes.
Kang further elaborated that Strategy possesses the financial flexibility to operate for over three years at current Bitcoin prices. He emphasized that selling Bitcoin would only be considered as a last resort. The company is exploring monetization options such as lending and covered calls, but its primary capital strategy remains focused on managing the mNAV ratio.
Contrarian View: MSTR Stock May Have Topped at $455
In contrast to Mizuho's optimistic assessment, trader XO presented a bearish perspective on May 22, suggesting that MSTR Stock's upward trajectory might have concluded around the $455 mark. His analysis, supported by charts, indicated significant resistance in the $425 to $455 range, where the stock reached a local peak. Price action subsequently consolidated below these levels through mid-2025.
Revisiting his call on December 1, XO updated his chart with the caption "it is what it is," acknowledging that the stock price had not managed to reclaim the $455 level. The updated chart illustrated a significant decline in MSTR Stock, falling to $157.53 after breaking below the $325 support zone. This represented a decrease of over 60% from the May peak and contributed to the stock's year-to-date loss of more than 35% to 40%.
Bullish Forecast: MSTR Stock Predicted to Reach $1,000 and Beyond
Offering a starkly different outlook, Pio, co-founder of BoDoggos, made a bullish prediction on November 30. He posited that MSTR Stock would ascend to $1,000 or higher, while also criticizing individuals who expressed doubts without taking corresponding short positions or purchasing put options.
Pio argued that these critics lacked genuine commitment, suggesting that investing in 1,000 shares would position him for millionaire status. However, he did not provide a specific timeline for achieving the $1,000 target. This prediction came at a time when Strategy (MicroStrategy) was facing considerable headwinds, including the risk of exclusion from MSCI indices and concerns surrounding its mNAV, which were negatively impacting investor sentiment.
MSCI Review and JPMorgan Actions Impact MSTR Stock
MSCI initiated a review to determine whether to exclude companies with significant "digital asset treasury" holdings from their equity indices. The proposed rule would apply if more than half of a company's assets were held in cryptocurrency. A decision on this matter is expected by January 15, 2026.
JPMorgan estimated that such an exclusion could lead to approximately $2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI-linked investment products. This figure could potentially rise to $8.8 billion if other major index providers adopted similar policies.
Michael Saylor, in a statement to Reuters, confirmed that Strategy was actively engaging with MSCI. However, he asserted that exclusion from the indices would not significantly impact the company, framing Strategy as essentially a leveraged Bitcoin proxy.
JPMorgan's note regarding the MSCI risk and its subsequent tightening of margin rules on loans backed by MSTR Stock generated considerable controversy. Bitcoin supporters amplified calls for a boycott of the bank, accusing it of targeting Strategy. Conversely, other market participants defended the stricter margining as a standard and necessary risk management practice.
mNAV Decline Sparks Debate on "Death Spiral" Risk
Strategy's (MicroStrategy) mNAV ratio fell below 1.0 by November 13, before recovering to approximately 1.2 on November 21. This level is substantially lower than the peak of nearly 2.7 reached earlier in 2025. At one point, the company's holdings of approximately 650,000 BTC were valued at over $66 billion, while its market capitalization had decreased to about $51 billion.
CEO Phong Le formally stated that Bitcoin would only be sold as a last resort, specifically if the mNAV dropped below 1 and external financing options became unavailable.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju expressed concern that selling Bitcoin during a period of depressed mNAV could trigger a "death spiral." However, he also noted that Strategy had numerous alternative strategies available, including refinancing options and further equity issuance.
Critics, such as Peter Schiff, interpreted the mNAV trigger as confirmation of fundamental instability within the company's financial structure.
Strategy Establishes $1.44 Billion Reserve and Adjusts Guidance
On December 1, Strategy announced the creation of a $1.44 billion reserve. This reserve was funded through approximately $1.5 billion in common stock sales, which were executed between November 17 and November 30. The company's intention is to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends, with a long-term target of establishing a 24-month buffer.
The company also revised its Fiscal Year 2025 outlook. The updated guidance is based on year-end Bitcoin prices ranging between $85,000 and $110,000. This projection indicates an operating income between a $7.0 billion loss and a $9.5 billion profit, a significant adjustment from previous estimates that had assumed Bitcoin would reach $150,000.
Analysts who support the company's strategy view the reserve as a move that de-links coupon payments from Bitcoin volatility. However, skeptics interpret this action as an admission that Strategy's Bitcoin-centric treasury strategy is no longer sustainable. For these critics, the establishment of a dollar buffer represents a departure from MicroStrategy's earlier positioning as a company singularly focused on Bitcoin accumulation.