Key Takeaways
- •Institutional demand and ETF inflows have thus far absorbed the redistributed BTC from Mt. Gox.
- •Rate cuts, trade optimism, and rising global liquidity strengthen Bitcoin’s path toward $150,000–$500,000.
Mt. Gox, a defunct crypto exchange, has postponed repayments to its creditors by a year and remains in control of around $4 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) as of Wednesday. This latest delay in repayments raises the question of whether it is bearish or bullish for the Bitcoin price moving forward.
Bitcoin Price Performance Amid Mt. Gox Redistributions
The Mt. Gox trust has redistributed approximately 75% of its Bitcoin reserves to creditors since mid-2024. This has reduced its BTC holdings to 34,690 from 142,000, according to data resource Arkham Intelligence. This means over $12 billion worth of Bitcoin, in today’s value, has already been dispatched. Despite these significant outflows, the market has not seen a bearish reaction; instead, Bitcoin has gained 85% since the repayments began.
Multiple analysts suggest that BTC may climb toward $150,000 by year’s end. This indicates that buyers have easily absorbed any selling pressure from the Mt. Gox repayments, signaling strong market depth. This absorption is supported by relentless demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies that are steadily adding BTC to their balance sheets.
For example, Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy has accumulated 414,477 BTC (approximately $47 billion) since mid-July, according to Bitbo.IO. This amount is roughly 3.9 times more Bitcoin than what Mt. Gox has redistributed to date.
Consequently, the current Bitcoin market, bolstered by ETFs, sovereign interest, and corporate treasuries, is better equipped to absorb several billion dollars of BTC compared to the 2017 or 2021 cycles. The postponement of Mt. Gox repayments to October 2026 means that approximately $4 billion in Bitcoin will remain off the market, reducing the likelihood of a sudden market dump.
Macroeconomic Conditions Favor Bitcoin Price Growth
Bitcoin bulls anticipate long-term price growth, citing macroeconomic catalysts that could mitigate any potential downside impact from Mt. Gox’s BTC distribution.
Markets are largely pricing in multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, signaling the commencement of an easing cycle. Reduced borrowing costs tend to lessen pressure on speculative assets, potentially allowing Bitcoin to expand toward $150,000 in the coming months.
Furthermore, progress toward a US–China trade deal has improved global risk sentiment, alleviating one of the most significant overhangs on both equities and cryptocurrencies.
Global M2 money supply is accelerating at its fastest pace since 2020.
Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin follows a similar liquidity-driven trajectory as observed during the post-COVID expansion, it could potentially climb toward $500,000 by 2026, echoing its strongest historical uptrend.