Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered difficulty regaining upward momentum, experiencing a price dip below $90,000 on Tuesday. Several market analysts attribute this short-term weakness to persistent selling pressure.
Key observations indicate a shift in market control, with newer Bitcoin whales now holding a larger portion of the realized capital compared to long-term holders. This dynamic, coupled with whale-dominated exchange inflows, suggests elevated selling pressure in the $95,000 to $90,000 range. Market analysts are also pointing to bearish order book data, which indicates a potential pullback toward the $85,000 level.
New Bitcoin Whales Emerge as Key Market Drivers
According to CryptoQuant analyst Moreno DV, a new cohort of Bitcoin holders, defined as those possessing over 1,000 BTC with holdings younger than 155 days, now controls a greater share of Bitcoin's realized capital than traditional long-term holders. This signifies a substantial portion of the supply has recently changed hands, often at higher price points.
The realized price for this group of newer whales is situated near $98,000. Consequently, with Bitcoin trading below this threshold, these new whales are currently holding approximately $6 billion in unrealized losses. In contrast, long-term holders, who have a realized price around $40,000, have remained largely inactive. This suggests that current price movements are primarily influenced by capital under pressure rather than strong conviction from established holders.
Exchange Inflows and Market Structure Point to Potential Downside
Data from cryptocurrency exchanges further supports the possibility of further price declines. The Exchange Whale Ratio has risen to between 0.52 and 0.55, indicating that a significant portion of Bitcoin inflows is being driven by large transactions, which are often associated with selling or reallocation activities.
If this ratio remains elevated and Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $95,000 to $98,000 range, the distribution pressure could extend the current pullback towards the $85,000 to $80,000 levels.
Trader XO observed that Bitcoin is currently trading below both the 21-period daily and 12-period weekly exponential moving averages (EMAs). Additionally, the cryptocurrency has broken multiple prior higher lows. This trader suggests that Bitcoin could gravitate towards the mid-$80,000s unless a substantial relief rally materializes.
Order flow analysis conducted by analyst ‘exitpumpBTC’ reveals significant negative delta clusters below the $91,000 mark, with over $300 million in total selling pressure realized. This indicates aggressive short positioning in the market. While this could potentially trigger a short squeeze if the $91,000 level is reclaimed, it currently reinforces the downward momentum for Bitcoin.
Futures analyst Dom described the current market setup as a "failed auction." Bitcoin briefly surpassed the Value Area High (VAH), which represents the upper boundary of the price range where most trading activity occurred since November 2024, only to subsequently re-enter that value area. Such patterns often carry a high probability of a rotation towards the Value Area Low (VAL), which is currently estimated to be around $86,000.
