Bitcoin investors are facing mounting evidence that October may represent their final opportunity to exit positions before a potential bear market takes hold. This assessment is based on multiple technical indicators and historical patterns that are converging to signal deteriorating market conditions.
Key Market Signals
- •Multiple technical indicators, including 10x Research's Bull/Bear Market Indicator and CryptoQuant's cycle tracker, have entered bearish territory in October following record liquidation events.
- •The 365-day moving average on CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has dropped near zero, approaching the "Extreme Bear" threshold that historically precedes prolonged downturns.
- •The four-year market cycle model projects a potential peak around October 2025, followed by a bottom in October 2026, while monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) patterns mirror pre-crash behavior from previous cycles.
Technical Indicators Point Toward Market Deterioration
The Bull/Bear Market Indicator, developed by 10x Research, registered a bearish signal in October. This proprietary model tracks on-chain activity and derivatives data that previously supported the recent rally but have since diminished.
Bitcoin's momentum has stalled, according to the research firm's latest report. Institutional investors have begun reducing risk exposure, while retail traders remain positioned near breakeven levels. The analysis suggests the market is at a critical juncture where either a sharp correction or a substantial recovery could materialize.
"We have maintained a tactically bearish stance, anticipating a potential pullback toward $100,000," 10x Research stated in its report.
CryptoQuant's Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator corroborates this assessment. This model, which analyzes market phases through on-chain data, shows its 365-day moving average declining to nearly zero. The indicator has entered what analysts classify as the "Bear" zone. Further deterioration would push it into "Extreme Bear" territory as the moving average crosses below zero.
Historical data demonstrates that when both the indicator and its 365-day moving average fall below zero, prolonged bear markets typically follow.
Cyclical Patterns and Price Action Analysis
The four-year market cycle continues to align with current price movements, despite claims from some analysts that this rhythm has broken down. Research from Alphractal, examining the traditional four-year pattern—encompassing accumulation, markup, distribution, and a one-year bear phase—has maintained its predictive accuracy.
This cyclical model projects a peak around October 2025, with a potential market bottom occurring in October 2026. The pattern has repeated through multiple cycles.
Analyst Alejandro₿TC identified another warning sign through the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) trendline. Bear markets have consistently begun when the RSI breaks its long-term upward trendline, according to his analysis shared on X.
The previous cycle saw the RSI retest its trendline before a major decline.
The current cycle has just exhibited identical behavior, with the RSI retesting the line and showing weakness. "Every time the monthly trendline broke, a bear market started. The good news: it always gave time to exit calmly before the big drop," Alejandro₿TC stated.
October recorded the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency market history. This mass liquidation occurred as multiple technical indicators flashed warning signals. Investors holding positions near current price levels face the possibility of significant losses if the bearish scenario unfolds as technical models suggest.
Understanding Key Market Metrics
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum by comparing the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses on a scale from zero to 100. Readings above 70 typically indicate overbought conditions, while readings below 30 suggest oversold conditions. Trendlines drawn on RSI charts help identify shifts in underlying momentum that may precede price movements.
Moving averages smooth price data by creating a constantly updated average price over a specific time period. The 365-day moving average captures long-term trends by calculating the average price over the previous year. When shorter-term prices cross below long-term averages, it often signals deteriorating market conditions.
On-chain indicators track actual blockchain activity, including transaction volumes, exchange flows, and holder behavior.
These metrics provide insight into whether investors are accumulating or distributing holdings. Derivatives data from futures and options markets reveals leverage levels and institutional positioning.
The four-year cycle theory stems from Bitcoin's halving events, which reduce mining rewards by half approximately every four years. These supply shocks have historically preceded bull markets, followed by peak euphoria, distribution phases, and bear market bottoms. Each cycle has maintained rough timing consistency despite varying in magnitude.
Outlook Remains Uncertain Despite Warning Signs
Several factors could support continued bullish momentum despite the bearish technical signals. Potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may drive capital into risk assets. A rotation of investment capital from gold into cryptocurrency remains possible. Exchange-traded fund inflows and institutional accumulation have remained strong.
The convergence of multiple bearish indicators—including on-chain metrics, cycle models, and technical patterns—suggests October may represent a critical exit point before market deterioration. However, forecasts carry inherent uncertainty. The coming months will determine whether the market enters a reset phase or experiences renewed momentum.