More than $104 billion worth of long-held Bitcoin has changed hands since 2024, fueling debate over whether early adopters are exiting the market or if the moves reflect routine trading activity. Data compiled by onchain analysts shows that Bitcoin’s recent pullback—from about $126,000 to near $100,000—coincided with a marked increase in activity among long-term holders. Cointelegraph reported that over 400,000 BTC left long-term holder (LTH) wallets in the past 30 days. The shift follows two years of elevated selling by older addresses, according to Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy. He said that more than 470,000 BTC older than five years were spent in 2025 alone. Combined with 2024’s data, that amounts to over $104 billion, representing nearly half of all Bitcoin that had been dormant for more than five years. “An enormous amount of distribution has occurred,” Thorn said, calling the period “unprecedented.”
Investor Takeaway
The movement of over $100 billion in older Bitcoin suggests major supply shifts, but analysts say most selling still comes from recent-cycle traders rather than Bitcoin’s earliest investors.
Analysts Split on ‘OG Dumping’ Narrative
The data sparked renewed discussion about whether Bitcoin’s oldest investors are exiting the market for good. Troy Cross, a professor at Reed College and long-time Bitcoin commentator, said the activity challenges Bitcoin’s founding ethos. “If early adopters are exiting in size,” he said, “it suggests that ‘OG’ holders no longer view Bitcoin as fundamentally different from traditional IPO-style investments.” Onchain analyst Checkmate pushed back on that interpretation, arguing that the phrase “OG dumping” is misleading. He said that while roughly half a million old coins have moved, the bulk of revived supply in 2025 originated from coins held for between six months and two years—assets typically owned by traders rather than long-term believers. Data shows 0.7 million BTC came from 6–12-month holders, 0.65 million from 1–2-year holders, and just 0.17 million from wallets aged three years or older. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, echoed that view. “The charts tell a very different story,” he said. “Most of the moved coins belong to recent-cycle traders, not Bitcoin’s original OGs.”
Bitcoin Faces Pressure From ETFs and LTH Selling
At the same time, Bitcoin’s price correction has been compounded by weak inflows into spot exchange-traded funds. Data from CryptoQuant showed that the seven-day cumulative netflow for Bitcoin ETFs fell by nearly $21 billion, the steepest decline in six weeks. Analysts described it as a “two-front selling wave,” with both institutional ETF investors and long-term holders reducing exposure simultaneously. ETF inflows that previously absorbed selling pressure from older wallets have now reversed, effectively turning a demand engine into a source of supply. “Unless institutional demand returns or long-term holders step back from selling,” one analyst said, “Bitcoin’s near-term bias may stay tilted to the downside.” Bitcoin was trading around $101,200 at the time of writing, down nearly 20% from its all-time high. Despite that, onchain metrics suggest overall supply held for more than a year remains high by historical standards—indicating many older investors are still holding.
Investor Takeaway
ETF outflows and long-term holder activity are weighing on Bitcoin’s price, but the broader data shows most veteran investors have not exited entirely.
Outlook: Routine Rebalancing or Exit Signal?
The scale of revived Bitcoin supply since 2024 is large by any measure, yet analysts differ on interpretation. Some view the selling as part of a maturing market, with long-time investors diversifying as institutional products like ETFs grow. Others see it as a warning sign that Bitcoin’s strongest hands are reducing exposure after a multi-year rally. What is clear is that Bitcoin’s liquidity dynamics are shifting. As more long-term coins re-enter circulation, the balance between holders and active traders will determine whether current levels around $100,000 represent a floor—or just another pause before deeper corrections.